Uk politics

Vote Leave’s £50 million question

If you ask most people if they wanted to win £50 million, the answer would be: where do I sign up? That’s why Vote Leave has launched a competition this morning (here’ the link to enter) offering £50 million to anyone who can correctly predict the result of every game in this summer’s European football championship, if no-one scoops the whole prize,£50,000 will go the person who came closest. Why is the prize £50 million? Because that’s what Vote Leave say the UK sends to the European Union each day. Vote Leave hope that this competition will get one of its key messages, the cost of EU membership, out to

Immigration dominates first BBC EU debate

The Lincoln-Douglas debate it was not, but we have just had the first prime time TV debate of this EU referendum. With Alex Salmond and Alan Johnson for In and Liam Fox and the UKIP MEP Diane James for Out speaking to an audience of 18 to 29 year olds in Glasgow. Many in the audience wanted to complain about the tit for tat tactics of the two sides in this referendum campaign or to condemn the scaremongering by both sides; interestingly, they seemed very sceptical of the Treasury’s forecasts of economic pain if the UK left the EU. One audience member, though, seemed to object to the idea that

Alex Massie

Confirmed: the junior doctors’ strike was about money, not patient safety

Everyone respects doctors. Some people even love them. They may not be quite as nobly exalted as nurses but they’re still worthier-than-thee. And why not? It’s a job that’s as demanding as it is vital. Everyone knows this too, which is one reason why no-one objects to the fact that doctors with modest seniority are amongst the top 20 percent of earners and those with greater experience still higher up the income scale. It is a profession and deserves to be rewarded as such. Rewards come in different forms, of course, and respect is just as important as cold, hard, cash. Junior doctors felt disrespected by the terms of the

Fraser Nelson

Brexit odds – live updates on percentage chance of UK leaving the EU

With opinion polls showing dazzling range – from Leave being 4 points ahead to Remain 13 points ahead – it’s worth looking at the betting markets. The below is a live chart, which will update every time you revisit this page. It updates several times throughout the day. At the time of writing, the graph underlines a basic point about referenda: no matter what the polls say, the status quo has a huge in-built advantage. Or, at least, a lot of people are betting that voters will stay with the status quo. Mind you, this time last year, the betting markets gave David Cameron a 10pc chance of winning a majority. Greater than the

PMQs Sketch: Osborne managed to fight off Labour’s pocket Boadicea

The only MP who doesn’t want Angela Eagle to be the next Jeremy Corbyn is Jeremy Corbyn. He was away today — thank Gawd! — leaving Eagle to take on George Osborne who replaced the PM. Eagle is quality. Her low stature, her kindly, nunnish face and her merry eyes give her a huge advantage in debate because she appears to be without defences. What weapon could this sweet-natured tinky-winky milkmaid possibly wield? A roll of grease paper? A warm scone? A rubber duck? When she strikes, as she does, the blow arrives invisibly. She has a slangy northern tongue that can easily make an Oxbridge toff look like a

James Forsyth

PMQs: After a strong start, Angela Eagle lost her way

It was George Osborne v Angela Eagle at PMQs today, with David Cameron at the G7 in Japan. Eagle, who is a far better despatch box performer than Jeremy Corbyn, started off by contrasting Osborne’s handling of Google’s tax affairs with the French authorities raiding the company’s Paris office. She then went on to do what Jeremy Corbyn won’t, or can’t do, exploiting Tory divisions over the EU referendum. She asked Osborne if he agreed with Priti Patel or Len McCluskey on the EU and workers’ rights. But after this Eagle lost her way, her questions turned into mini-speeches and Osborne batted them away with increasing ease. By the end of

Hilton: Brexit would be the crowning achievement of Tory modernisation

In a speech to Policy Exchange today, Steve Hilton—David Cameron’s former senior adviser—will make the case that ‘any intellectual rigorous examination makes it impossible for a Tory moderniser to support staying in the EU’. He argues that Tory modernisation was about trusting people, and that the EU does not; that modernisation was about localism, and that the EU is inherently centralising; and that the EU helps the rich and not the rest. I think there’s much to be said for Hilton’s analysis. (Though, of course, it should be recognised that there are Tory modernisers on both sides of the argument.) But where Hilton is surely right is that the EU

Isabel Hardman

How good government often goes unnoticed and unrewarded

What make a good minister? Is it how well they perform at the Dispatch Box in the Commons? Or their ability to field questions on Newsnight? Or even their ability to be a good lunch guest for a member of the lobby? The truth is that often we don’t know whether someone has been a good government minister until years after they’ve left the department and the policies they introduced have actually run their course, rather than just enjoyed a bit of media limelight. Take the 1999 Teenage Pregnancy Strategy. Launched in June of that year by Tony Blair, the strategy examined a study by the Social Exclusion Unit and

Alex Massie

Project Fear 2 is a rubbish sequel. But it will still work

Sometimes, in this game, it’s tempting to over-complicate things. The lesson of Talleyrand’s death – What did he mean by that? – has been all too well absorbed. And so we search for hidden meanings and a deeper truth whenever a politician says something. The real story always lurks beneath the surface, nothing should be taken at face value and everyone is always thinking three moves ahead. It’s an appealing thought right enough. The trouble is it’s also often nonsense. Sometimes even politicians just mean what they say. Nicola Sturgeon’s visit to London yesterday offered a case in point. The First Minister insisted, as she has always insisted, that she wants the

Is the Leave campaign going around in circles?

Boris Johnson took in a car factory as part of his day of campaigning for Vote Leave in Yorkshire. The former Mayor did the usual politician’s thing of touring the workshops of Ginetta, pointing at various pieces of equipment and asking the workers what it was that they were doing, before hopping in one of the carmaker’s vehicles – branded with Vote Leave insignia – for a spin. He drove it out of the factory before handing the wheel over to a proper driver, who proceeded to whizz him around in tight donuts in the car park outside, sending up a large amount of smoke from the burning rubber. ‘We’re

Lara Prendergast

Could Brexit solve the housing crisis?

It is, at times, unclear that George Osborne is aware that the under-30s are voting in this EU referendum. When he talks about house prices plummeting post-Brexit, he talks as if this will strike fear into everyone’s hearts. For older people seeking to downsize, this might be true – but for almost everyone else, it’s not. And when I hear the In side arguing that we should all be terrified of Brexit because it will cause house prices to fall, I can’t help but wonder if this is the best single reason to vote ‘out’. For most people my age, one of the worst changes in Britain has been the

al-Baghdadi, luvvies and affordable housing: the worst predictions of the EU referendum

It’s that time of the week again, when I promised to round up the worst contributions to the Brexit debate. The Prime Minister got the week off to a good start by claiming that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the famed head of ISIS, is a supporter of ‘Vote Leave’.  In fact the putative world Caliph has yet to come out for either side in the UK referendum, though the attacks in Paris last November suggest that the EU’s weak external borders and absent internal borders have been working out nicely for the terrorist chief.  As a result the smart money is on al-Baghdadi coming out for ‘Remain’, though I’m sure nobody

Even religious polemics can’t inject any life into the Brexit debate

Churches are generally ideal venues for public debates. But there’s a slight chance that a speech about the perils of EU membership will be interrupted by a homeless person doing a pee in the corner. At a debate on Christian responses to the EU at St James the Less church in Pimlico last night, Giles Fraser left off quoting his hero Tony Benn on the evil of unaccountable power in order to do his muscular Christian duty and help eject the man, who spluttered invective as he departed. Did I imagine it or did he shout ‘Fexit Brexit’? A bit earlier, his opponent Ben Ryan had set out an optimistic

James Forsyth

The Boris, Cameron ruck over EU

David Cameron and Boris Johnson are the two biggest beasts in the Tory jungle. But they are currently involved in an increasingly undignified scrap over Brexit. As I say in The Sun today, it is hard to see how it ends well for both of them or the Tory party.  As one Cabinet Minister lamented to me recently, ‘it is a personal fight’ between Cameron and Boris and that ‘the Conservative party is on a hiding to nothing.’ Boris and Brexit is the itch that Cameron can’t resist scratching. When Iain Dale asked him about Boris going Out, Cameron—in effect—accused the former Mayor of putting his personal ambition ahead of

Government accepts rebel amendment on Queen’s Speech to stave off defeat

So Number 10 has yielded and decided to stave off the Queen’s Speech rebellion by accepting the rebel amendment to it, thereby stopping the first defeat of a government on its legislative programme since 1924. A spokesman said: ‘As we’ve said all along, there is no threat to the NHS from TTIP. So if this amendment is selected, we’ll accept it.’ So job done, rebellion gone. But it is still a bloody nose for the government from eurosceptics, who are forcing the Prime Minister and the rest of the executive to support something that regrets that they failed to table a bill exempting the NHS from something they have been

Isabel Hardman

Queen’s Speech row: whose fault is it?

Tory eurosceptics are threatening to cause the first government defeat on a Queen’s Speech since 1924 by joining forces with Labour MPs over an amendment expressing regret that there is no bill exempting the NHS from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. It’s the second time the eurosceptics have worked with Opposition MPs to try to force an embarrassing and historic defeat on a major government event: the last one was on the Tampon Tax after the March Budget (which turned out to be the least embarrassing bit of the aftermath of that Budget, as it happens). But why are Tory eurosceptics joining in with this opposition game-playing? They had

Tory MPs mull cautious Queen’s Speech

The quiet Queen’s Speech seems largely to have underwhelmed Tory MPs – though they do predict a number of sticky moments in the Commons over the coming months. Most I have spoken to describe it as ‘pretty bare’, though they also understand why the Prime Minister isn’t trying anything particularly ambitious at this stage ‘Why waste initiatives when no-one is listening?’ asks one. Another anti-Cameron MP describes the content rather more bluntly as ‘uninspiring, managerialist and vacuous’. There will be flashpoints on the Bill of Rights and the Investigatory Powers Bill, something the whips are hard at work on. They hope that on the latter, any funny business by Labour

Isabel Hardman

What David Cameron is trying to tell us with this Queen’s Speech

What is the point of today’s Queen’s Speech? The government’s legislative programme for the year is being briefed as light and safe, given the ructions in the Tory party over Europe and David Cameron’s tiny majority. But it is also being briefed as a social justice speech, one focused on getting on with the important reforms to improve the life chances of disadvantaged people. The main story is the reforms to the prison system, which will be carried out by Michael Gove and include ‘in-cell technology’ such as iPads to help prisoners learn independently (a far cry from the ‘book ban’ over which Gove’s predecessor Chris Grayling tussled with the criminal

Labour MPs are stuck in a miserable stalemate – and some want out

When are Jeremy Corbyn’s enemies going to get their act together? Today’s Times poll of the Labour membership shows that they would get a rather cold reception if they tried to remove the Labour leader, with 72 per cent telling YouGov that Corbyn is doing well, up from 66 per cent in November. Members are slightly less upbeat about the party’s prospects for actually governing, with 53 per cent believing it will be in government after the 2020 election, and 47 per cent saying Corbyn is likely to become Prime Minister. They also largely think that the 5 May elections went well for the party, with 67 per cent saying

Alex Massie

Jeremy Corbyn should not be allowed to rewrite the history of his support for the IRA

Something remarkable is happening in British politics right now. Something rotten and disgusting too. Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of Her Majesty’s loyal (sic) opposition, is trying to rewrite history. Here is what Corbyn said to Robert Peston at the weekend: “I do make the point that if you are to develop a peace process in the Middle East or anywhere else in this world for that matter, you have to have serious conversations and negotiations with all the forces involved. […] Listen, the Northern Ireland parallel is sometimes a bit overplayed by nevertheless it is an important one. The successive British governments thought there was a military solution in Northern