Uk politics

Osborne gets the post-Budget front pages he hoped for

If George Osborne’s Budget is going to end up in a mess, it hasn’t done so yet. The worst criticism that the front pages of even hostile newspapers can come up with is that the Chancellor has produced a very political Budget which is hardly a surprise. Most splash on the retail offers in the Budget and the good economic news.    Some of the front pages have rather creative approaches to the Budget. Even front pages such as the i, which foregrounds the politics behind the Budget, still refer to the tax cuts for first-time buyers and savers. And the most critical front pages, from the Guardian and the Mirror,

Isabel Hardman

Labour’s aggressive election campaign was evident in Miliband’s Budget response

Ed Miliband didn’t produce a spectacular response to the Budget, but neither did he have a bad outing at the despatch box. It was certainly better than his performance last year, and Labour MPs seem – in public at least – quite cheered by the whole thing. The Labour leader did have to contend with a wall of noise from heckling Tory MPs. The Treasury Support Group has got rather carried away with itself at the past couple of economic statements, producing a boorish roar that requires frequent interruptions from the Speaker rather than under-the-radar witty cricket sledging which works in unsettling the Opposition. You don’t want the public or indeed even

James Forsyth

A typical coalition Budget – designed to put the Tories back in power | 18 March 2015

Here is a preview of James Forsyth’s political column from this week’s Spectator, out tomorrow George Osborne usually tells his aides to prepare for each Budget as if it were his last. This time round, the Chancellor and those around him needed no reminding of what is at stake. They knew that this statement had to boost the Tory election campaign and define the choice facing voters in May, otherwise it really will be the last Budget he gives. As one Tory MP put it, ‘The Budget’s got to deliver some political momentum or we’re done for.’ Osborne has long been aware of the importance of this Budget for his

Isabel Hardman

Cabinet celebrates the Budget ‘in the traditional manner’

The Cabinet met this morning to discuss the Budget, with the Chancellor telling ministers that today the Conservatives will ‘set out the next stage in a plan that is working’ and deliver a ‘truly national recovery’, a reiteration of the comments he’s already posted on Twitter. The Prime Minister’s official spokesman told journalists that ‘there was an exchange of views from around the table’ and that the Budget was greeted ‘in the traditional manner’ by those present. He refused, though, to clarify what the ‘traditional manner’ is. Is it popping the cork of your own individual magnum of champagne in unison? Is it singing your school hymn, performing the Hakka, holding a

Isabel Hardman

How will the Tories sell today’s Budget?

It’s Budget Day, possibly George Osborne’s last Budget and certainly the last big event in the House of Commons that anyone outside it will notice. The Chancellor will, within the limits set by the Coalition, try to give voters a vision of what life after the cuts will be like, with glimpses of sunlit uplands in the form of further rises to the personal tax allowance, freedom for pensioners who already have annuities to sell them for a lump sum, whizzy online tax returns, as well as the sort of spending that helps voters feel more secure, with the Sun predicting more cash for the intelligence services. He will describe

Labour and Lib Dems welcome ‘progress’ on TV debates

So both Labour and the Lib Dems have responded to the TV debates with caution and enthusiasm respectively. A Labour spokesman said ‘based on the broadcasters’ proposals we have accepted and plan to attend all three debates on April 2nd, 16th and the 30th. If the Tories have confirmed they are to attend one of these debates then that is progress. It is one down, two to go. But no-one should be fooled: David Cameron is running scared of a head-to-head televised debate with Ed Miliband’. The Lib Dems have also welcomed the move as ‘progress’, with a spokesman saying: ‘ ‘It’s good news that we are finally making progress

Isabel Hardman

Tory knives dangle over Grant Shapps

Though his Conservative colleagues have largely been very supportive of Grant Shapps during the latest row about his alter ego Michael Green, there is a contingent in the party who aren’t massive fans of the Tory chairman and who have pushed at previous reshuffles to have him removed. As I predicted yesterday, those opponents of Shapps certainly aren’t planning any trouble this side of an election. But that doesn’t mean they’ll leave him alone permanently. One critic whispers: ‘We’re keeping quiet as there is an election imminent. But the knives will be out after that. He lied on radio – and a Cabinet Minister who does that should be toast. And

Poll of key marginal seats finds swing towards Labour

Are the Conservatives or Labour wining the ground war in marginal seats? Lord Ashcroft has polled eight key constituencies — of which seven are currently held by Conservatives and one by Labour — that he visited six months ago to see who is winning. In these seats, Ashcroft has found there is currently a five per cent swing away from the Conservatives. According to Ashcroft, Labour is on track to take five of these Tory seats: City of Chester, Croydon Central, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Nuneaton and Wirral West — the latter being one of the few Tory seats on Merseyside, represented by the employment minister Esther McVey. The interactive chart above shows Ashcroft’s latest snapshots for each of the seats. Labour

Isabel Hardman

The Coalition is drawing to an end in a surprisingly civil manner

It’s the last Budget before the election tomorrow and there are just a few days left of the Coalition. Which is why it is hardly surprising that a few of the pre-Budget briefings aren’t so much briefings designed to bag policies a bit more coverage but leaks by one party designed to embarrass the other. The Tories had been working on their inheritance tax policy for the Budget but will instead announce it in their election campaign because of Lib Dem opposition. But that hasn’t stopped ‘sources’ leaking Treasury analysis of the planned cut to the tax to the Guardian, and saying ‘this looks like a policy to buy more

Four polls show that neither Conservatives nor Labour are pulling ahead

Another week, another set of polls that put Labour and the Tories on an almost level footing. In his weekly national poll, Lord Ashcroft has the Conservatives two points ahead on 31 per cent — down three points from last week — while Labour are on 29 per cent. Today’s Guardian/ICM poll also has the Conservatives slightly ahead, by one point, while Labour has jumped three points to 35 per cent. But the latest The Sun/YouGov’s poll tonight shows the opposite: this poll has Labour two points ahead of the Tories, who are down to 32 per cent. Another poll from Populus yesterday put the two main parties on 34 per cent

James Forsyth

Ed Miliband rules out a formal coalition with the SNP — but a deal could still be on the cards

Ed Miliband has today ruled out a formal coalition between Labour and the SNP. Labour hope that this will draw the sting from Tory claims that if you vote Labour, you’ll get SNP and put pressure on Cameron to rule out any deal with Ukip. But, as Nicola Sturgeon has been quick to point out, the SNP weren’t keen on a formal coalition. Rather, what has been talked about is something more akin to a confidence and supply deal with the SNP agreeing to vote for Miliband’s Queen Speech and Budget in return for specific concessions.  This is something that Miliband, for the obvious reason that he might need it

Nigel Farage is right: he has to win in South Thanet

Can Nigel Farage survive as leader of Ukip if he doesn’t become an MP? Although he stood in South Thanet ten years ago — and gained a meagre 5 per cent of the vote — he has much bigger hopes for the impending election. But the dangers are also much higher than ever before. As I wrote in the Spectator recently, if Farage doesn’t win South Thanet, his position as Ukip leader would become untenable. He admitted to me it ‘could be a car crash’ if he doesn’t become an MP. Farage has publicly admitted today that South Thanet won’t be an easy fight and there is a huge danger if he doesn’t

Nick Cohen

Liberal Democrats reveal the great fissure in liberalism

Someone once said (it may have been me) that while the left looks for traitors the right looks for converts. Only in Britain’s centre ground, however, are converts treated as traitors. Maajid Nawaz is one of the most interesting public figures I know. As a young man growing up on the Essex coast, he received an education in both varieties of modern far-right thinking: the racist and the religious. Racist gangs and Combat 18 were active in his area. He reacted against them, as any boy of spirit would. But his reaction took the form of joining Hizb-ut-Tahrir. Hizb was the marijuana or soft porn of radical Islam in the

Isabel Hardman

Labour aims fire at Grant Shapps over second job allegations

How damaging for the Tories is the row about Grant Shapps’ second job? While it is quite easy to write up the Conservative chairman’s business past in a way that makes him sound like a slightly murky character teaching people how to make a ‘ton of cash’, does the latest story, that Shapps was still running his web marketing business when in Parliament, despite his claims to the contrary, really cut through to voters? The details are as follows: Shapps told LBC three weeks ago that ‘I’ve never had a second job while being an MP, end of story’. But a tape from the summer of 2006 has Michael Green (Shapps)

Nick Clegg: The Liberal Democrats are the continuity choice at the election

The Liberal Democrats sense an opportunity in all this speculation about who the Tories and Labour would do deals with in the event of a hung parliament. They believe that they can position themselves as the responsible party that will keep the country in the centre ground in contrast to the other smaller parties. Today, in his speech to the party’s spring conference, Clegg ruled out joining any coalition that involved the SNP or Ukip. He also tried to use the moment to reinforce voters’ worries about either main party governing on their own. He argued that the Tories would cut needlessly—‘Cows moo. Dogs bark. And Tories cut. It’s in

Isabel Hardman

Paddy Ashdown slaps down Tim Farron: ‘Judgement is not his strong suit’

It seems Tim Farron has rather annoyed his senior Lib Dem colleagues with his quite naked desire to become party leader. After the ambitious MP said that the Lib Dems got 2/10 for the way they’d handled the Coalition, he received a pretty hefty slap down from Lord Ashdown on this morning’s Pienaar’s Politics on Radio 5Live. The Lib Dem General Election campaign chair didn’t bother sending veiled messages to Farron about criticising the party leadership and saying that the Lib Dems are ‘dead’. Instead, he just verbally roughed up Farron in the way Farron has been roughing up his own party leadership. ‘His well-known ambition would be better served with

James Forsyth

How George Osborne got the Liberal Democrats to agree to an ‘interesting Budget’

George Osborne and Ed Balls have just done their pre-Budget interviews with Andrew Marr. The show, though, was dominated by talks of post-election deals rather than the contents of the Budget. Ed Balls said that Labour had ‘no need, no plan, no desire’ to do any kind of deal with the SNP. But, as Andrew Marr kept pointing out to him, he wouldn’t rule it out. While when George Osborne was asked about any kind of arrangement with Ukip, he simply took the opportunity to repeat the claim that ‘voting for Nigel Farage makes Ed Miliband the likely Prime Minister’. It was a pity, though, that more time wasn’t spent