Uk politics

Ukip vs Tories vs Labour — how alike are the voters?

How similar are Ukip and Tory voters? Although the party hierarchies are keen to distance themselves from each other, there’s plenty of overlap in the opinions of their supporters. Firstly, both groups are enthusiastic about heading to the polls this Thursday. A few weeks ago, Ukip was slightly ahead of the other parties in the likeliness to vote ratings. Now the polling says they’re far more likely to vote than the Tories. According to the latest poll, almost three quarters of ‘kippers say they will definitely vote on Thursday compared to a little over half for the Tories: [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/4YxMN/index.html”] The Tories and Ukippers have similar views on Faragiste warnings

Is he or isn’t he a racist? Why politicians don’t want to give a straight answer about Farage

Mainstream politicians, never known for giving a straight answer, have been giving particularly wibbly and unclear responses to one particular question today. Is Nigel Farage a racist and was what he said about Romanians moving in next door racist? Ed Miliband did pick a particularly tortured definition of what Nigel Farage had said when asked about it on the Today programme. It was a ‘racial slur’ but Farage is not a racist, or at least, Miliband didn’t want to make politics more ‘disagreeable’ by accusing Farage of being a racist. But he did say that Farage was right to apologise. Helpfully, Nick Griffin pitched in to tell BBC News that

Alex Massie

UKIP’s biggest problem is stupidity, not racism

Let me be clear, any time you feel the need to write “Let me be clear – UKIP is not a racist party” you are in a pickle. Parties shunned by actual, honest-to-goodness, copper-bottomed, ocean-going racists don’t usually need to make these things clear. There is a protesting-too-much vibe here, too, in which the more strenuously the Kippers reject the accusation so they only succeed in substantiating it. This might not be fair but it’s also life. The precise point at which a party for racists or a party in which racists feel at home becomes a racist party is a metaphysical question the pondering of which need not detain

Steerpike

Fallon slapped down over EU campaign comments

After Michael Fallon suggested that the Conservative party could campaign for the UK to leave the EU if a renegotiation proved unsuccessful, the Prime Minister’s official spokesman was today asked about David Cameron’s view on this. He said: ‘The position hasn’t changed. The Prime Minister is confident of success.’ The Prime Minister’s position is that he will definitely get the changes he wants and therefore he knows already that he will campaign to stay in the European Union in 2017. So the possibility that the party might have to campaign to stay out is being read in some quarters as a suggestion that Fallon and other ministers don’t share his

Isabel Hardman

The danger for Miliband of being too confident about his anti-business stance

Why is Ed Miliband so content with accusations that he’s anti-business and a bit of a lefty? The Labour leader was grilled this morning on his relations with business leaders when he appeared on the Today programme, and while he did an adequate job of defending himself, he didn’t seem too perturbed by the questions levelled at him, nor the suggestion that his party is bleeding votes to Ukip. Why is he displaying such zen-like calm? listen to ‘Miliband: UK ‘one of worst developed countries’ over low pay’ on Audioboo The reason is not just the Labour leader’s intellectual self-confidence but also because the former is a way of solving

Westminster still expects Ukip to win

The polls are all over the place this morning. Ukip is either on course for a thumping victory, going to be edged into second by Labour or has fallen into third place depending on which is your preferred pollster. But all three Westminster parties are operating on the assumption that Ukip will win, as I say in the Mail on Sunday. Certainly, Labour are getting their excuses in early. Those close to Miliband are quick to point out that Tony Blair never won a European Election and that the party machine will be concentrating more on Thursday’s council contests than the European Elections as having a strong council base will

An NHS tax is just another name for a tax rise

Finding a way to raise taxes that is popular is, for some on the centre-left, the Holy Grail. As the well connected Andrew Grice reports in The Independent today, a growing number of people on the Labour side are attracted to the idea of an NHS tax. Their logic is that the public value the NHS so wouldn’t mind paying more for it. They point out that when Gordon Brown raised National Insurance to fund extra spending on the health service there was none of the backlash you would normally expect to a tax rise. But the reality is that the introduction of a new NHS tax won’t be matched

Why has fascism failed in the United Kingdom?

Because, well, just look at them. These Young Spodes are not quite the Master Race are they? And this is the problem with extremism: it cannot avoid being ridiculous. I know there is never room for complacency but it’s hard to feel threatened by these Pythonesque boobies. Nor is the absurdity limited to the white right. The problem for Muslim extremists in Britain is they swank around the place in their kaftans claiming to be voice of the people (or “their” people) unaware that the people (including “their” people) neither recognise them nor want anything to do with them. In time, thanks to the good sense and humour of the

Party donations: Labour receives £3 million from unions this year

It’s time to find out which parties are in the money, thanks to the latest Electoral Commission information on party donations. According to the figures for Q1 2014, the Tories have received £6.7 million in donations (up from £3.7 million in Q1 2013) and Labour £4.4 million (compared with £3.7 million last year). It’s not surprising that donations are up because we’ve entered an important election season. Most of the donors are not new, so here are the top five donations to the Conservative party in 2014 so far, compared with last year: [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/ETr2q/index.html”] Michael Hintze: £1.5 million James Lupton: £258k Michael Farmer: £258k Alexander Fraser: £200k David Lilley:

Isabel Hardman

MPs on holiday: the truth about what they really get up to

MPs are now in recess. Again. Cue plenty of moans about them escaping the zombie parliament and jetting off on holiday. There’s not much you can do about the former, but the latter is not, as any MP will angrily remind you, quite true. If you’re a type with a big majority who is a bit fonder of the Westminster game than you are of your constituents, then a holiday might be an option. But at this time of year, MPs are more likely to be found canvassing for the European and local elections, or holding extra constituency surgeries to catch up on time lost to Parliament. The Conservative whips

Lord Howell offends the North of England again — but does he have a point?

Oh Lord Howell, you’ve done it again. Offending the North of England once wasn’t enough, so he’s had a second go — warning today that the Conservative party will lose votes in their heartlands if fracking goes ahead. In an online article for the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, George Osborne’s father-in-law lambasts the government’s fracking plans: ‘Trying to start in southern England, and in the home counties, or in rural and countryside areas anywhere, north or south, is a guarantee of longer delays, higher costs and increased hostility from both green left and countryside right. ‘Every time ministers open their mouths to claim that fracking must start

Alistair Darling is not being replaced as the leader of the Better Together campaign

‘Utter fucking bollocks’. In case that’s not clear enough for you, the suggestion that Alistair Darling is being replaced as the head of the Better Together campaign is, as one insider puts it, ‘absolute horseshit’. Douglas Alexander, the man replacing Darling according to the Daily Mail, was at the Better Together HQ in Glasgow earlier today and, I understand, mildly surprised to learn of his elevation. Then again, the Mail only reports that there will be ‘no formal announcement of a change’ merely a ‘secret agreement’ that Alexander should effectively supplant Darling. So secret, however, that no-one involved appears to have heard of it. James Chapman is a fine reporter but one can’t

Airport wars: Heathrow and Gatwick argue about who offers the most benefits

Gatwick or Heathrow, who will triumph in the battle of the airports? Both sides have submitted more detailed proposals to the Airports Commission today, setting out why they are the right choice for expanding the UK’s airport capacity. While Boris Island appears to be mostly sidelined, the battle is looking to be between a second runway at Gatwick and a third (or possibly extending the second) runway at Heathrow. In the revised proposals, Heathrow has increased its compensation fund for the effected 750 homeowners to £550 million, while Gatwick argues its expansion would be cheaper, more beneficial and have a lesser environmental impact — 14,000 people vs 250,000 for Heathrow.

Isabel Hardman

Labour poll blow: party anger could focus on shadow cabinet

What will the Labour fallout, if any, from today’s polls, be? Generally when this sort of bad news befalls to the Conservative party, the gossip turns quickly to David Cameron’s standing as leader. But in the Labour case, it’s a bit more complicated. This is partly because the party tends to feel far more loyal to Miliband than Conservative MPs do. They feel as though he tends to invest in them personally – even those who didn’t support his leadership or are unhappy with his policies. And so they’re less likely to turn on him. The knives have already been out for Douglas Alexander for some time, with shadow cabinet

Isabel Hardman

Second poll lead is perfectly- timed gift for Tories

The inconvenience of the Newark by-election notwithstanding, the Tories have had the perfect preparation for a drubbing in next week’s European elections. They’ve told everyone who even stops for a second on the pavement next to them that they’re expecting a difficult time and thus have managed the expectations of the party both at a parliamentary and grassroots level. They’ve seen the increased media scrutiny of Ukip as a sign it is ok to attack the party, albeit not using insulting language. They’ve tried to keep MPs busy with campaign days, rather than plotting in Portcullis House. And now they’ve reached the point Labourites feared, when the two parties have

Knives still out in Coalition sentencing fight

What will become of the other big coalition row that’s burning away alongside free schools? David Cameron was asked today about the plans to introduce mandatory sentences for repeat knife offences, and made some very supportive noises again, which the Tories signed up to Nick de Bois’ amendment to the Criminal Justice and Courts Bill think is a sign that they’ve made the right decision. He suggested that Nick Clegg could change his mind about it – and some have taken this as a sign that there’s a compromise on the cards. The Conservatives tell me they are ‘looking carefully’ at de Bois’ amendments, but the Lib Dems say they

Labour falling behind as Ukip leads latest Euro poll

Labour is failing to make up any ground on Ukip ahead of next week’s European elections. A new poll from Sky News and YouGov today says that Labour’s support has dropped to 25 per cent, while Ukip remain comfortably in first place with 31 per cent of the vote: [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/LbUDH/index.html”] Interestingly, Ukip has not pushed further ahead since the last YouGov poll I wrote up, but they are now clear of the margin of error — two/three per cent depending on the sample size. It appears that, combined with Ukip’s higher likeliness to vote, Labour is ever more certain to come second on 22 May. The Tories, who have

Alex Massie

Does Boris Johnson really want to see Tony Blair tried for war crimes?

What are we supposed to make of Boris Johnson? I mean, are we supposed to pay attention to what Boris actually says? Or is he permitted to play the game of politics by different rules? That is, the sort of stuff that applies to other politicians does not apply to Boris because the Mayor of London is a great entertainer and thus granted some kind of relief from the usual rules of responsibility. Just asking, you know. Consider his recent remarks about Tony Blair and the Iraq War. During an appearance on LBC last week, the Mayor appeared to endorse the fashionable daft idea that Mr Blair should be tried