Us politics

The rejuvenation of Barack Obama’s re-election hopes continues apace. He’s added seven points to his approval rating since November, improving it from the low 40s to around 50 per cent now. After months of polling neck-and-neck with Mitt Romney, he now boasts a six point lead. Just four months ago, the bookies thought he was more likely to lose the election than win it. Now Intrade gives him a 60 per cent chance of victory. Nate Silver has a great article on Obama’s chances in this week’s New York Times Magazine. He’s built a model to forecast the election results based on the three most important factors at this stage:

Having reclaimed the mantle of ‘Anti-Romney in Chief’, Rick Santorum is now surging in the polls. He’s moved into a narrow lead at the national level and – more importantly – looks likely to win two of the next big states on the primary calendar: Michigan and Ohio. Of course, that makes him the new target of Romney attack ads. Restore Our Future – the pro-Romney Super PAC – has already released a video slamming Santorum as a ‘big spender’ and ‘Washington insider’, which it will air in Michigan, Ohio and Arizona. A Romney advisor explained the strategy to Buzzfeed yesterday: ‘“Santorum’s a blank slate, so everyone’s projecting on to him what

Some well-informed people — Rupert Murdoch among them — have suggested that Mitt Romney could exploit Obama’s increasingly fractious relationship with America’s Catholics to win the presidential elections in November. The so-called ‘Catholic vote’ is often said to be the crucial swing factor in American democracy. Romney, however, may be facing a bigger socio-religious stumbling block than Obama’s: evangelicals. They don’t like him. Mainstream Protestant Republicans in the north have plumped for Mitt, generally speaking, but he has been far less successful in the evangelical south. ‘As a county’s evangelical population expands,’ says Real Clear Politics analyst Sean Trende, ‘Romney’s vote share declines.’ The obvious explanation is that southern Baptists

As Pete says, Obama fired some well-aimed arrows in the direction of Mitt Romney in his State of the Union address. But it was also a clear attempt to outline Obama’s re-election message, which would, I think, be the same no matter who he faces in November. The idea is to stress that Obama, unlike the corrupt Republicans who nearly bankrupted America, is a ‘fair shake’ candidate, who stands for hard work and responsibility. It is hypocritical rubbish, as I tried to point out last month. The idea of Obama as the straight-shooting, anti-corruption candidate is absurd. President Obama has proved to be a very different politician to the progressive

They said South Carolina would be Mitt Romney’s big test. Tonight, he failed it. The networks have called the primary for Newt Gingrich, and CNN’s exit poll shows him beating Romney 38-29. It’s an astounding turnaround, considering that Romney led by around 10 points just a few days ago. The Romney campaign is already trying to claim it’s not too disappointed by the result – that a few weeks ago they would have been happy with third place, that it’s Florida that really matters. But the truth is, he’s suffered a big upset. After it looked like he’d won Iowa and he took a solid if unsurprising win in New Hampshire,

When the week began, the idea of anyone but Mitt Romney claiming victory in tonight’s South Carolina primary seemed fanciful. He had a 10 point lead in the polls, giving him a 90 per cent chance of victory according to Nate Silver’s model. Any talk of someone else winning sounded like the wild hopes of a media keen for the nomination battle to go on as long as possible. But no longer. As I said on Thursday, it’s been a particularly bad week for Romney and a particularly good one for Newt Gingrich. Gingrich even managed to turn the one thing that seemed likely to halt his momentum – an