Economics newsletter
Are the Tories really the party of ‘fiscal prudence’?
The message the Tories want you to leave their conference with is that they are the party of prudence. The party of fiscal responsibility who will make the first ‘serious down payments’ on the size of the state, as shadow chancellor Mel Stride explained at a Spectator drinks reception last night. Today, he will set
Will Labour MPs stand for Rachel Reeves’ benefits crackdown?
When Rachel Reeves speaks at Labour party conference today, she has a tough message to deliver. The Chancellor will announce her plans to ‘abolish youth unemployment’ by forcing Britain’s jobless youth into work. There’s a moral case to be made for welfare reform and the Chancellor must make it today The ‘youth guarantee’ scheme will
Are central bankers too powerful?
Donald Trump’s political and legal assault on the Federal Reserve has provoked concern and indignation from the defenders of central banks’ operational independence. Amid the sound and fury, some simple points are being forgotten. Whether or not this distracts central bankers from their main goal of controlling inflation is a matter of debate First, public
Britain’s inflation woes aren’t going away
The OECD expects the UK economy to outperform the eurozone and grow by 1.4 per cent over the year. But there is a downside to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s latest figures: the body expects the UK’s inflation problem to persist, ending this year at 3.5 per cent, down just a touch from the
Borrowing is spiralling out of control
There really is no good news for Rachel Reeves as she prepares her second Budget. This morning’s borrowing figures are not just bad; they hint at a sense of hopelessness, that Britain is sliding inexorably towards a very deep fiscal crisis. This is yet another fiscal black hole for Reeves to fill, along with another about
Rachel Reeves doesn’t get the interest rate cut she was hoping for
The Bank of England has held interest rates at 4 per cent. Threadneedle Street’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted seven to two to keep rates where they are. The fact inflation now sits at almost double the Bank’s 2 per cent target outweighed concerns about the slackening jobs market and what its impact on Britain’s
Is this the real reason Brits are taking so many sick days?
Are Britons getting sicker and sicker – or is our health improving? There seems to be something of a paradox. According to figures from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) the number of sickness absences has increased from an average of 5.9 days per worker in 2019 to 9.4 days in 2024. Interestingly,
The Budget that could make, or break, Starmer’s government
As the Chancellor Rachel Reeves gets to work on her second Budget – to be delivered on 26 November – red lights flash everywhere. Gilt yields were up again as markets lost faith in her ability to balance the books. Reeves or Darren Jones – whoever is really calling the shots – will spend the
The markets don’t trust Keir Starmer
The pound is starting to slide. Gold is punching through record highs, and long-term gilt yields are hitting levels that have not been seen in thirty years. It is not a Liz Truss style crisis, at least not yet, although it is worth noting that the price the government has to pay to borrow money
Don’t bring back British Rail
The theme of my holiday reading has been the insidious ways in which the vanities and fetishes of rulers harm the interests of citizens. I started with 1929, Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new history of the Wall Street crash, which I’ll be reviewing elsewhere ahead of its release in October –my point here being not about