Economics newsletter
Will the economy save the Tories?
This week Dominic Cummings said the Tories may have ‘crossed the event horizon’. He was trying to find a tech bro way of saying the game is up: they’re finished as an electoral force and it’s only Labour, Reform and the Lib Dems still in play. But might the Tories have one last chance? If
Is this the end of Trump’s tariffs? Don’t count on it
Overnight three federal judges on the United States Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump’s worldwide tariffs are unlawful and blocked them from going into effect. A group of businesses had taken the President’s administration to court, successfully arguing that the tariffs announced on ‘Liberation Day’ were beyond the powers of the presidency. The
IMF: Britain will need to raise taxes if it wants to keep spending
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned Britain faces ‘difficult fiscal choices’ if it is to meet ever increasing spending pressures. The fund predicted a surge in public spending, driven largely by commitments to welfare, health, and pensions. According to the IMF, these policies will push public spending as a share of GDP up by 8
Is Rachel Reeves prepared to raise taxes?
Some of the most infamous words in politics are ‘read my lips, no new taxes’ – uttered by George H.W. Bush as he accepted the nomination as the Republican candidate for the 1988 US presidential election. It helped him win that year but contributed to his downfall in 1992 as he failed to stick to
Britain is not in charge of its energy
As much of Westminster gets up in arms about fish, the major change in Starmer’s EU deal is going under the radar. The deal, announced yesterday, commits Britain and the EU to exploring Britain’s participation in Europe’s energy market. If we go forward with this, it effectively gives up our energy policy to Brussels. It’s
What’s the Treasury’s real view on immigration?
This week has seen much talk – again – of the ‘Treasury View’, and how that rarely defined set of values might be influencing this government’s approach to migration. First, let’s kill off some conspiracy theories that exist about the Treasury View. In general terms the Treasury View stands for cautious conservatism (with a small
The City backlash against Reform has begun
It will be like Liz Truss on roller skates. The next election may still be four years away, and the manifestos still need to be fleshed out. Even so, the City has already started issuing stark warnings of a run on the pound if there is a Reform government led by Nigel Farage as Prime
Is it any surprise junior doctors want more money?
If the government was deliberately trying to encourage union militancy, it could not be making a better job of it. It is reported that junior doctors – or ‘resident doctors’ as we are now supposed to call them for fear of implying that they might be less qualified than consultants who have been doing their
Is Starmer’s Trump trade deal the win he thinks it is?
Keir Starmer says it is a ‘fantastic, historic’ day after signing a trade deal with the United States, but is the agreement really something to celebrate? Ten per cent tariffs, announced last month, still apply to most UK goods entering the US The government is no doubt cock-a-hoop to be the first country to get
Why Britain is cutting interest rates – and the US isn’t
Interest rates have been cut to 4.25 per cent. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by five to four for what will be the fourth rate reduction since August. The decision breaks with the direction of the US Federal Reserve, which held rates yesterday after refusing to bow to pressure from President