Simon Clarke | The Spectator columnists & writers

If tiers don’t work, expect a third wave in the new year

‘The difficulty is that we’re coming out of the tough autumn measures, out of the lockdown… with the incidence of the disease still pretty high,’ Boris Johnson explained on Friday. It is against this backdrop that he finds himself trying to sell tougher Covid rules as England emerges from the November lockdown. It is an especially difficult sell, of course, when an area has been placed in a higher tier than before the lockdown – even if, as in many instances, cases are now lower than when the tier system was first introduced. It understandably appears incoherent and arbitrary. The Prime Minister’s case is that he hates lockdowns too, but observing the Tier system properly is the quickest way to normality. A failure to do so will mean we end up back in lockdown.

Spectator Out Loud

Spectator Out Loud: Simon Clarke, Simon Barnes and Jeremy Clark

17 min listen

Spectator Out Loud

Spectator Out Loud: Simon Clarke, Simon Barnes and Jeremy Clark

17 min listen

On this week's episode, Dr Simon Clarke tells us why a vaccine may not be as close as we've been led to believe. (00:51) Next, Simon Barnes gives us a history of the mink. (07:13) And finally, Jeremy Clark tells us about his US election night from an olive grove. (11:08)

Simon Clarke

South Dakota’s failed Swedish-style Covid experiment

Simon Clarke

South Dakota’s failed Swedish-style Covid experiment

Simon Clarke

The questions we must ask about the Covid vaccine

Simon Clarke

The questions we must ask about the Covid vaccine

After a difficult nine months, we are naturally all sick of lockdowns and other Covid restrictions. Everyone misses parts of their pre-coronavirus lives, from seeing friends and family, to pubs and restaurants, to the theatre and concerts and, yes, even our workplaces. It was therefore no surprise that this week’s news of a vaccine breakthrough was widely applauded. It is human nature, after all, to cling on to things that give us hope. Hope that was encouraged by leading scientists such as Sir John Bell. After the Pfizer news broke, the Oxford professor was asked on BBC radio whether we would be returning to normal by spring. His response? ‘Yes, yes, yes.’ This was a When Harry Met Sally moment that proved to be music to the ears of millions of Britons.

Simon Clarke

The dangers of knee-jerk lockdown scepticism

Simon Clarke

The dangers of knee-jerk lockdown scepticism

From the very start of the pandemic, modelling projections and empirical data have been twisted to suit different agendas. Fanatics on both sides of the debate have cherry-picked data — whether those demanding tougher restrictions or those on the other side who believe that the virus is harmless and that this is all big fuss over nothing. Cold, detached analysis was an early victim of Covid-19. And so it proved yet again after the Prime Minister’s press conference last Saturday, during which a number of projections were presented showing how the Covid-19 death toll could proceed in the coming weeks. A number of models were used to justify placing England into a second lockdown. One, in particular (produced by the University of Cambridge and Public Health England), however, set a hare running across the media and enraged libertarian MPs, eager to believe we’re being hoodwinked into an unnecessary lockdown.

Simon Clarke

What lockdown sceptics get wrong about Sweden

Simon Clarke

What lockdown sceptics get wrong about Sweden

Should Britain return to a form of lockdown — the logical conclusion of a suppression strategy — or should we adopt a different approach, one that looks more like Sweden? Those in favour of a so-called ‘segmentation strategy’, where the vulnerable are shielded and the rest of us are allowed to continue with our lives unrestricted, often point to the Scandinavian country as an exemplar. It’s an alluring argument, certainly, but one that does not stand up to scrutiny. A sober look at Sweden, in fact, shows that it is far from the great success story some so desperately want it to be. Supporters of the Swedish approach would correctly point out that, compared to the UK, it has had fewer deaths per million than we have had.

Simon Clarke

What lockdown sceptics get wrong

Simon Clarke

What lockdown sceptics get wrong

One of the more peculiar features of Covid is just how cleanly the crisis has split us down political lines. As a serving Tory councillor, you may assume that my views on masks, lockdown and the virus are predictable. But I’m also a microbiologist and I’m dismayed by the attitudes of some fellow travellers. Pandemics, particularly ones involving dangerous viruses like this one, are not merely a question of personal freedom but also of collective responsibility. Of course I desperately want a return to normal life. To be frank, however, I do not think that’s going to happen any time soon. Why? Because the virus is simply too dangerous to be left unchecked. I don’t believe a vaccine is imminent (more on that later) — which means, for the foreseeable, we’re going to have to ‘learn to live with this virus’, as the dreary phrase goes.