Today

11 Aug 2022

Yesterday

10 Aug 2022
Coffee House Shots
When will the blue-on-blue end?
12 min listen

The Tory contenders are expected to announce their own measures to protect households and businesses from the energy crisis. Why has it taken this long? Labour too, is yet to reveal a strategy. Will they leave the Tories to fight amongst themselves?Also on the podcast, Nicola Sturgeon has made a comeback at Liz Truss who earlier in the month called the Scottish leader an attention seeker. At the Edinburgh fringe festival, she told the audience that Liz Truss once asked her how to be featured in Vogue. So who is the real attention seeker now? And will they ever see eye-to-eye if Truss gets into No.10?Isabel Hardman speaks to Katy Balls and James Forsyth.Produced by Natasha Feroze.

When will the blue-on-blue end?

Tuesday

9 Aug 2022
Coffee House Shots
How do you solve a problem like energy prices?
14 min listen

Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss head to the Red Wall for hustings in Darlington this evening. Meanwhile, new figures released by Cornwall Insight on the extent of the energy price cap make for grim reading. Will Labour respond with their own package?Also on the podcast, as countries look to ensure domestic energy supply, What could this mean for the UK, as a net importer of energy?'In a crisis, borders want to reassert themselves. Any country is going to prioritise preventing black-outs over exporting power' - James ForsythFinally, it’s results day in Scotland, how do they compare to previous years? Katy Balls speaks to James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman. Produced by Natasha Feroze and Oscar Edmondson.

How do you solve a problem like energy prices?

Monday

8 Aug 2022
Rationing and blackouts are a possibility this winter

The debate about energy in the UK has largely concentrated on just how high prices will go. This is understandable given how seismic the October and January increases in the energy price cap are likely to be. But today’s announcement from Norway that it will prioritise refilling domestic reservoirs over exporting hydropower to countries like the UK is a reminder that supply may soon become an issue too. In a crisis, borders reassert themselves as Covid showed. What happened with PPE and medical supplies during the pandemic may well happen with energy this winter. This is a concern for the UK given that it imports large quantities of energy during the winter. If there are circumstances in which Norway, France, Holland or Belgium limit exports because of the need to maintain domestic supply that will cause problems for the UK.

Rationing and blackouts are a possibility this winter

Saturday

6 Aug 2022

Friday

5 Aug 2022
Will there be blackouts this winter?

The debate about energy has, understandably, concentrated on what is going to happen to households bills. The numbers are alarming. The energy price cap is now predicted to peak at £3,649 in April 2023, meaning that the average household bill will be above £3,000 for more than a year. As I say in the Times today, this is going to require a response from whoever is prime minister. But less attention has been paid to the question of whether there’ll be sufficient energy this autumn and winter. National Grid is suggesting that the UK will avoid blackouts. But it is not hard to see how they could end up taking place. As Covid showed, in times of crisis contracts across borders are not always honoured, a problem for the UK given that we tend to import energy from the continent in the colder months.

Will there be blackouts this winter?

Thursday

4 Aug 2022
Why the Tories must face the truth about energy bills

One influential figure on the centre-left told me recently that he isn’t bothered about who wins the Tory leadership contest. He argued that the tsunami of problems waiting to hit the new leader – rising energy prices, inflation and a creaking NHS, to name but a few – means the Tories will be in trouble regardless of whether it’s Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak who triumphs. These issues are enough to sink any government, but especially one that has been in power for 12 years. Given how Boris Johnson dominated politics, whoever succeeds him will to some extent feel like a fresh start. But they won’t be able to pull off his trick of presenting their administration as entirely new. This is a particular problem for the party as mistakes made, or things not done, since 2010 have compounded the looming energy crisis.

Why the Tories must face the truth about energy bills

Wednesday

3 Aug 2022

Tuesday

2 Aug 2022
Nancy Pelosi knows how much Taiwan matters

In the coming hours, Nancy Pelosi is expected to arrive in Taiwan. The plane that is thought to be carrying her is approaching the island from the east to avoid the Taiwan Strait and any attempt by the Chinese to fly close to her. As Speaker of the House of Representatives, she will be the most senior US figure to visit Taipei this century. Beijing is furious about Pelosi’s decision to go. It has warned that its military ‘won’t sit idly by’ if she does touch down and is planning various displays of military strength. While no one expects the Chinese to actually attack the island, there is talk of buzzing the Taiwanese air defence zone and other intimidatory acts. Taiwan is of huge importance. Its strategic location and the fact it is a natural fortress means that taking control of the island goes a long way to determining the balance of power in the region.

Nancy Pelosi knows how much Taiwan matters

Monday

1 Aug 2022
What will China do if Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent sanctions, are roiling European energy markets and threatening a continent-wide recession. But we live in an age of multiple crises, and tensions over Taiwan are bound to flare in the coming days. There are reports that Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, will visit tomorrow. She would be the most senior US figure to visit this century. The Chinese have said that their military ‘won’t sit idly by’ if she does go there. Now to be clear, this almost certainly means military exercises rather than anything else. But it is worth noting that Joe Biden has said the US military do not consider it ‘a good idea right now’. The economic consequences of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, as Sam Olsen wrote recently, would dwarf those of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

What will China do if Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan?

Friday

29 Jul 2022
Truss and Sunak are arguing about the wrong things

The Tory party needs to distinguish between the different types of blue-on-blue arguments. There is the peripheral stuff about shoes and earrings which would be no great loss to the debate if it was to end; then there are the substantive issues on which the party does need to thrash out what it thinks.  In the Times today, I suggest five arguments that the Tories need to have in this contest. Having been friends with Rishi Sunak for decades, and having known Liz Truss since she became an MP in 2010, I think they are capable of having a constructive argument. The genuine differences between them should help improve debate. They don’t need to fight over trivialities (which are often the bitterest arguments) or manufacture differences.

Truss and Sunak are arguing about the wrong things

Thursday

28 Jul 2022
The next PM’s growing to-do list

In theory, the Conservative leadership contest could have stretched to the autumn, but the 1922 Committee and CCHQ decided to crunch the timetable due to the sheer number of crises facing the country. So Tory MPs had only a fortnight to choose the final two candidates, which did perhaps change the course of the race. Given the support that Kemi Badenoch managed to raise in a short period, it is not hard to imagine her being in the last two if she had been given more time to make her case. A longer contest would also have allowed the Tories more time to think about what changes they need to make if they are to win a fifth term. But for all the problems posed by a short competition, the essential logic of that judgment holds.

The next PM’s growing to-do list

Wednesday

27 Jul 2022
Angela Rayner ally sacked by Starmer

Sam Tarry, who joined today’s picket line at Euston and gave various interviews from there, has been sacked from the Labour shadow transport team and the front bench. However, Tarry has not been sacked for being on the picket line, but for making unauthorised media appearances. Labour’s line is thatthis isn't about appearing on a picket line. Members of the frontbench sign up to collective responsibility. That includes media appearances being approved and speaking to agreed frontbench positions.  This morning, Tarry implied that rail workers would not have gone on strike under a Labour government as they would have been offered a more generous pay deal. Given that Tarry is a close ally of Angela Rayner, his sacking will cause comment.

Angela Rayner ally sacked by Starmer

Tuesday

26 Jul 2022

Monday

25 Jul 2022

Sunday

24 Jul 2022

Friday

22 Jul 2022

Thursday

21 Jul 2022
The future of the Tories is at stake

To govern is to choose. So leadership contests for a party in government tend to come down to a key policy question. In 2019 it was how to break the Brexit deadlock; this time it is what to do about the economy. Should the new prime minister prioritise tackling inflation or delivering immediate tax cuts? The candidates have been divided on this issue. Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor, who I have been friends with for years, argues inflation makes everybody poorer and so getting control of it must be the primary objective. On the other side is Liz Truss. The Foreign Secretary wants, as she tells Isabel Hardman in this issue, to introduce £30 billion of tax cuts straight away. Penny Mordaunt, the trade minister, hasn’t gone that far – she says that this contest is not the right time to set out what her fiscal approach would be.

The future of the Tories is at stake

Wednesday

20 Jul 2022