Today

22 Jul 2021
The tax-and-spend Tories

When you ask a government minister why something hasn’t happened, you get a one-word answer: ‘Covid’. It has become the catch-all excuse for manifesto promises not materialising. But in the case of social care, there is a particular truth to it. A meeting last week between the Prime Minister, the Chancellor and the Health Secretary nearly resulted in an agreed policy. A plan was expected this week. Then Sajid Javid tested positive for Covid, putting the three into isolation and the policy on hold. Johnson feels he needs a solution to social care, having promised to solve the issue when he became PM two years ago and again in the Tory manifesto. One colleague, who has discussed the topic with him multiple times, points out that if Johnson doesn’t come up with a solution, then what would he say at the next election? Another vague commitment simply wouldn’t cut it.

The tax-and-spend Tories

Yesterday

21 Jul 2021
Will the EU accept the UK’s Northern Ireland protocol changes?

The UK has just revealed a list of the changes it wants to make to the Northern Ireland protocol. These are not minor tweaks. They would, as David Frost said, require ‘significant changes’ to the protocol. Frost says that the UK wants ‘to open discussion on these proposals urgently.’ But it is hard to imagine the EU being keen to renegotiate the protocol. They will point out that the current British Prime Minister signed this agreement and likely repeat their demand that the protocol must be implemented. So what happens next? The current grace periods run until the end of September so there is unlikely to be an immediate confrontation. But come the end of the summer, the question of whether the UK will unilaterally extend the grace period or invoke Article 16, which allows it to unilaterally discard aspects of the protocol, will rear its head again.

Will the EU accept the UK’s Northern Ireland protocol changes?

Tuesday

20 Jul 2021

Monday

19 Jul 2021
Why the government’s biggest fear is mass isolation

There is growing nervousness in Whitehall about what the number of people having to self-isolate might mean for various key industries. This, rather than hospitals being overwhelmed, is fast becoming the biggest worry among policymakers. This concern is leading to talks about what can be done to prevent key workers from having to isolate. I understand that one option under discussion is extending the exemption on NHS staff and allowing other critical workers to test rather than self-isolate earlier than 16 August, from which double-jabbed people will not have to self-isolate if in contact with someone with Covid. But the problem is defining who is, and isn’t, a critical worker. Remember the difficulties in working out which pupils, as children of key workers, were eligible to be in school during lockdown.

Why the government’s biggest fear is mass isolation

Friday

16 Jul 2021
Whitty’s lockdown warning will trouble Boris

In a Science Museum webinar yesterday, Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, warned about the increasing number of people in hospital and said that, if in the next five to eight weeks 'things are not topping out, we do have to look again and see where we think things are going.'  He added that 'we've still got 2,000 people in hospital and that number is increasing. If we double from 2,000 to 4,000 from 4,000 to 8,000...and so on, it doesn't take many doubling times until you're in very, very large numbers indeed.'  The implication of these statements is that some restrictions could come back. If this were to be the case, it would be politically devastating for the government. In the January lockdown, there was the solace that the UK was vaccinating a large number of people.

Whitty’s lockdown warning will trouble Boris

Thursday

15 Jul 2021
The rise of the unwhippable Tories

When the government announced a Commons vote on its decision to cut the foreign aid budget from 0.7 per cent of GNI to 0.5, the expectation was that the vote would be tight. In the end, the government won comfortably: it had a majority of 35. But despite their success, the whips would be wrong to be feeling triumphalist about this, I write in the magazine this week Twenty-four Tories voted against the government, 14 of which were former ministers. The overwhelming majority of these are either uninterested in returning to ministerial office or are only interested in doing so on their terms. This means the usual whips’ line — if you keep your nose clean preferment might come your way — is ineffective. This group is essentially unwhippable.

The rise of the unwhippable Tories

Wednesday

14 Jul 2021
Coffee House Shots
Have Conservatives lost the culture wars?
12 min listen

The Prime Minister looked visibly uncomfortable at Prime Minister's Questions today, as Keir Starmer accused him of 'giving racism the green light' with the Conservative party's stance on footballers taking the knee. It comes after a week in which other Tories - notably Priti Patel - have been criticised by footballers and begs the question - did the Conservatives wade into a culture war they can't win? Cindy Yu talks to James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman. Isabel points out that the Tories were never going to win in a popularity contest:'But really, it was obvious - and has long been obvious - that footballers are more popular than politicians. So to pick a fight with them... it's very difficult for white Conservative MPs to criticise the gesture that those footballers have chosen to take a stand against the racism that they themselves have experienced.

Have Conservatives lost the culture wars?

Tuesday

13 Jul 2021

Monday

12 Jul 2021
The foreign aid vote may shatter Boris’s fragile majority

The vote on the cut to the foreign aid budget, which Jacob Rees-Mogg has just announced in the Commons, will be tight. The government has said that it plans to return to its manifesto commitment of 0.7 per cent but only when the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecasts show the UK is no longer borrowing for day-to-day spending and the debt is in decline. But that may not be enough to edge it given that the rebels want it restored when the economy returns to pre-pandemic levels, which will come much sooner. The government’s majority of 80 will be put under more pressure than it has been at any point in this parliament — with Labour, the SNP and the Liberal Democrats all planning to join with the Tory rebels.

The foreign aid vote may shatter Boris’s fragile majority

Saturday

10 Jul 2021

Friday

9 Jul 2021
Boris Johnson’s survival rests on reforming Whitehall

More than 40 years after it was written there are still lines in Yes Minister that are painfully accurate about how Whitehall works. One of these is Jim Hacker’s comment that the British system of government has the engine of a lawnmower and the brakes of a Rolls Royce. Yet most new prime ministers regard civil service reform as a 'third-term issue'. It is time-consuming and is very much not a vote winner.  But now Covid and the challenges it has thrown up has made it a priority. As I say in the Times today, it is now a matter of survival for this administration to sort out the machinery of government. Unless they do, they have no chance of clearing the backlogs that have built up during the past year and a bit.

Boris Johnson’s survival rests on reforming Whitehall

Thursday

8 Jul 2021
Freedom day will usher in new problems for the Tories

The next few weeks in politics will be dominated by the 19 July reopening, and whether hospitals can cope with the coming increase in the number of patients. But, as I say in the magazine this week, if the lifting of Covid restrictions is successful, then attention will turn to the various backlogs that have built up during the pandemic, most notably in education, the NHS and the justice system. These backlogs will cause all sorts of political problems for the government. Those affected by them will want them cleared with urgency. But there are both capacity and financial constraints to how fast they can be dealt with. One cabinet minister predicts that the public will become so irritated by the government’s failure to sort out these backlogs that it will lead to a Labour revival in the polls and the Tories will fall a couple of points behind.

Freedom day will usher in new problems for the Tories

Wednesday

7 Jul 2021
Warning for No. 10 as Tory MPs re-elect Graham Brady

Graham Brady has been re-elected as chairman of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers. Brady, who has been chair since 2010, saw off a strong challenge from the former minister and whip Heather Wheeler. Brady’s victory is a sign of the mood on the Tory backbenches. Wheeler’s supporters argued that Brady had been too public in his criticisms of the government’s approach to lockdown. That Brady won despite having voted against the government multiple times is a sign that Tory MPs are not in a particularly deferential mood towards No. 10 and that they want someone independent-minded to represent them. Several MPs told me they were voting for Brady because they knew he would be unafraid to deliver tough messages to No.

Warning for No. 10 as Tory MPs re-elect Graham Brady

Tuesday

6 Jul 2021

Monday

5 Jul 2021
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