Today

13 Jan 2022
Is it over? Boris is in the worst trouble of his premiership

Throughout his political career, Boris Johnson has defied all odds. He has been defeated, written off, mocked. At one stage, he left the House of Commons completely. Yet no matter how down-and-out he has looked, how bleak his prospects have appeared, he has always managed to recover. His party chose him as leader partly for this ability to pull off the seemingly impossible. Yet now he faces the gravest peril of his premiership. For the first time, his fate is out of his hands. His excuse for attending a drinks party in the garden of No. 10 after passing such restrictive lockdown laws is that he ‘believed implicitly that this was a work event’ — even though his private secretary had convened the event via a mass email asking staff to ‘bring your own booze’.

Is it over? Boris is in the worst trouble of his premiership

Yesterday

12 Jan 2022
It’s getting worse for Boris

Talking to Tory MPs this morning, it is clear that the mood today is even worse than yesterday. Even one of those MPs closest to Boris Johnson thinks that it is now 50/50 whether enough letters go in to force a no confidence vote. Ironically, the improving Covid numbers are changing the calculus for some Tory MPs about a contest. A few weeks ago, even the most ardent Boris critics didn’t think you could have a no confidence vote, given the situation with the soaring Omicron variant. But now it is somewhat in retreat, and that restrictions are likely to go on 26 January giving hostile MPs the chance to do so. PMQs today is, obviously, an important moment. Lots of Tory MPs are holding off on replying to angry constituents until after it.

It’s getting worse for Boris

Tuesday

11 Jan 2022
Coffee House Shots
Can Boris survive another Partygate scandal?
13 min listen

Another day, another party scandal. ‘Bring your own booze’ said Martin Reynolds, the Prime Minister's private secretary in a leaked email to around 100 staff in May 2020, inviting them to a picnic at 10 Downing Street. At the same time, the rest of the country was limited to socialising within household bubbles or one other person outdoors. 'This is the most serious party allegation yet when it comes to Boris Johnson specifically' - Katy BallsNo.10 have refused to respond to the leaked email whilst Sue Gray's investigation into other Downing Street parties are ongoing. Can this line of response last through to PMQ’s tomorrow? Boris Johnson can expect challenging questions from Keir Starmer as the crisis unravels.

Can Boris survive another Partygate scandal?

Monday

10 Jan 2022

Saturday

8 Jan 2022
Coffee House Shots
Could the Cabinet save Boris’s premiership?
12 min listen

Despite a torrid time for the Prime Minister's popularity over the last few months, there may be a political revival on the horizon. His decision not to lockdown over the Omicron variant seems to have paid off and won back some of the support from his party. But will the Johnson project end up a failure? A lot of the Prime Minister’s future rests on the people who work closest him. On the podcast, Fraser Nelson points to the high turnover of staff at No.10 that has been destabilising, especially for someone who usually builds a strong support system around him. ‘This is a sign, the high turnover of staff suggests a dysfunctional No.10 which isn’t capable of making decent high-quality decisions' - Fraser Nelson Also on the podcast, can the success of the booster campaign help Boris Johnson try to win back some of the government's lost reputation for competence? All to be discussed as Cindy Yu speaks to James Forsyth and Fraser Nelson.

Could the Cabinet save Boris’s premiership?

Friday

7 Jan 2022
Coffee House Shots
Have Boris’s ‘lost’ texts fuelled the sleaze scandal?
11 min listen

The ‘lost’ texts sent by Boris Johnson to Lord Brownlow over his Downing Street flat refurbishment continues to dominate the headlines today. As the story unravels, it's a sign that the Tory sleaze issues hitting Boris at the end of 2021 will continue way into the new year.'It’s not going to go down well when people are seriously thinking about the cost of their energy bills over the next few months: how much it costs to buy food, what supplies are in shortage, to be reminded that the Prime Minister was trying to put extremely expensive wallpaper up in his flat' - Kate AndrewsAlso on the podcast, various problems are snowballing towards a cost of living crisis. The energy price cap is expected to rise just as household contributions are due to increase from the National Insurance hike.

Have Boris’s ‘lost’ texts fuelled the sleaze scandal?

Thursday

6 Jan 2022
What Boris must do to survive

In recent years, the notion of cabinet government has been a polite fiction. In theory, the prime minister is merely the first among equals when he meets his secretaries of state. In practice, they all owe their position to No. 10 and usually do what they’re told. The situation was summed up by an old Spitting Image sketch showing Margaret Thatcher at a restaurant with her cabinet ministers. She orders steak. ‘What about the vegetables?’ the waitress asks. ‘Oh,’ she replies, ‘they’ll have the same as me.’ For the first two years of Boris Johnson’s premiership, cabinet ministers were more claque than cabinet. ‘How many hospitals are we going to build?’ he asked at their first meeting after his general election victory.

What Boris must do to survive

Wednesday

5 Jan 2022
Rayner hits Johnson where it hurts

The first PMQs of the year gave us a preview of the political debate we’ll be having for the next few months. Labour went after the government on inflation. Angela Rayner asked Boris Johnson why he had dismissed fears over it as unfounded back in October: Johnson denied he had said it — which is an odd claim given what he said in that interview. She then punched the Tory bruise, by asking why Johnson wasn’t cutting VAT on fuel, as he had said he would do during the EU referendum. Johnson made the point that this help wouldn’t be well targeted, which is true. But the political pressure for this from Labour and his own backbenchers are going to make it very hard for him to resist. Johnson, for his part, sought to draw a dividing line with Labour on Covid restrictions.

Rayner hits Johnson where it hurts

Tuesday

4 Jan 2022
Coffee House Shots
New year new Keir?
11 min listen

Keir Starmer arrived in Birmingham today to deliver his agenda-setting speech, outlining Labour's vision for the future. The opposition leader had to tread the delicate path between offering a substantial, policy-based agenda whilst holding his cards close to his chest.'One of the challenges of opposition in the midterm is, they come up with new policy and then the government pinches it' - James Forsyth.Also on the podcast, James and Isabel discuss the reaction to the news that Tony Blair is to be awarded a knighthood. The former prime minister is a controversial choice for some, raking up to 500,000 signatures on a petition demanding to reverse the decision. For others, the question is: why has it taken this long?Cindy Yu is joined by Isabel Hardman and James Forsyth.

New year new Keir?

Monday

3 Jan 2022
Coffee House Shots
Has England dodged lockdown?
15 min listen

The government has delayed making any announcements about further Covid restrictions in the face of Omicron for weeks. But with more data coming in every day about this new variant, seemingly showing it leads to a lot less hospitalisations than previous waves, will there even be any new measures at all? 'The science and the vaccines have created the situation where Britain doesn't have to lockdown.' - Fraser NelsonCindy Yu talks to Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth about the UK's response to Covid at the beginning of 2022.Subscribe to The Spectator's Evening Blend email, from Isabel Hardman and Katy Balls, for analysis of the day's political news and a summary of the best pieces from our website. Go to www.spectator.

Has England dodged lockdown?

Sunday

19 Dec 2021
Coffee House Shots
Why David Frost resigned
19 min listen

Boris Johnson once boasted that you couldn't hold a cigarette paper between him and David Frost, the man he brought on to take Brexit over the line. Yet this key ally has resigned when the Prime Minister is at his most vulnerable. In his resignation letter, Lord Frost cites his concerns on whether the country is making the most of Brexit to cut taxes and red tape, and the direction of travel when it comes to dealing with the pandemic. On the podcast, Katy Balls talks to Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth about the significance of this moment – which Fraser says is 'a bigger blow to the Prime Minister than the by-election'. Taking a look at his reasons for departure, James says 'All the reasons he is citing – high taxes, Covid passes, net zero – punch every vulnerability that Boris Johnson has with the Tory activist base'.

Why David Frost resigned

Saturday

18 Dec 2021
Lord Frost’s resignation is a brutal blow to Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson’s premiership has been plunged into further crisis tonight by the resignation of the Brexit minister Lord Frost. Frost has, according to the Mail on Sunday, quit over the political direction of the government, citing Plan B, tax rises and net zero. His decision to go makes Johnson more vulnerable than he has been at any point in his premiership. He has lost the man who negotiated his Brexit deal, the person he used to reassure hardline Brexiteers he wasn’t going soft and the second most popular member of his Cabinet among the party faithful. Frost, a canny political operator, will know just how much his departure will weaken Johnson, and the reasons he has given for leaving hit the Prime Minister’s weakest spots with his activists.

Lord Frost’s resignation is a brutal blow to Boris Johnson

Friday

17 Dec 2021
If the Tories can lose in Shropshire, they can lose anywhere

The Tory defeat in North Shropshire is a far worse result for the party and Boris Johnson than their loss in Chesham and Amersham. Chesham and Amersham could be put down to local anger about HS2 and disquiet over planning reform. It was also a seat ripe for tactical voting given it had voted Remain and the Lib Dems were a clear second. North Shropshire, by contrast, is a heavily voting Leave seat where the Liberal Democrats were in third place. There was also no single policy driving voters away from the Tories in the way that planning reform did in Chesham and Amersham. If the Tories can lose this seat in a by-election, they can lose anywhere in one of these contests. There’ll be much Tory anger at Boris Johnson over the result.

If the Tories can lose in Shropshire, they can lose anywhere

Thursday

16 Dec 2021
Ben Wallace takes aim at the misuse of the military

On this week’s Spectator TV, Andrew Neil interviews the Defence Secretary Ben Wallace. The pair discuss Ukraine, Taiwan, Iran and the fallout from the withdrawal from Afghanistan. But, perhaps, the most striking part of the interview came when Wallace talked about his concern that politicians are turning to the military as a first resort not a last resort. He said that once the Covid crisis has passed, the Ministry of Defence will need to ‘reassert that we are the last resort, not the first’. Wallace was critical of both Whitehall and the devolved administrations for the speed with which they have turned to the military to help in recent times. In some of the most critical comments by a British government minister on the performance of the devolved administration this year, Wallace — himself a former MSP — said:If you are the Scottish first minister with a significant funding for your health service or the education service, or the Welsh first minister or indeed some of my colleagues in Whitehall, then it is not our job if you can’t run your health service in Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon.

Ben Wallace takes aim at the misuse of the military

Wednesday

15 Dec 2021
Coffee House Shots
Can Boris take back control?
21 min listen

Last night Boris Johnson suffered the biggest rebellion of his Tory premiership. But, unlike his predecessor, he still managed to get his vote through with Labour's support. Nearly 100 Conservative MPs voted against the government's plans for vaccine passports.Their reasons for rebelling varied. For some, they want to send a message to the PM that he cannot take his majority for granted. For others, it is about the principle of vaccine passports.'Boris Johnson is proving to be a deeply illiberal Prime Minister. He’s turning into the sort of Prime Minister he used to warn us against when he was writing’ - Fraser NelsonKaty Balls is joined by Isabel Hardman, Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth to discuss last night's rebellion and the booster vaccine program.

Can Boris take back control?

Tuesday

14 Dec 2021
Boris is in deep trouble

This evening feels eerily familiar to anyone who remembers the meaningful votes of Theresa May’s premiership. The Tory rebellion on the Covid measures is bigger than expected; the rebels are claiming to be the mainstream of the parliamentary party; the cabinet ministers loyalists to the PM are blaming the whips office; there are mutterings about how long this can go on for. There is, of course, one crucial difference: thanks to Labour, Boris Johnson won tonight’s vote. But it is clear that if he wants to tighten restrictions further, he will be reliant on Starmer’s party’s support in doing so. Relying on the opposition to get their business through is never a comfortable place for a Prime Minister to be. The size of the rebellion — 100 MPs — is a shot across the bow of No.

Boris is in deep trouble

Monday

13 Dec 2021
Plan B rebels have safety in numbers

In rebellion, there is safety in numbers. At some point, if enough backbenchers are going against the party whip there is a limit to what those enforcers of party discipline can threaten. There is also the fact that after such a large rebellion, there must be an attempt to bring the party back together: which means there can’t be a blanket bar on promotion for rebels. The Tory uprising against the government’s Covid Plan B has easily passed this tipping point: the whips can’t blackball 75 MPs. This means rebellion is more likely to grow than shrink. Tomorrow, Labour can exploit this to the full. They’ll be able to highlight how these measures are only passing because they are supporting them, increasing the discomfort on the Tory benches.

Plan B rebels have safety in numbers

Friday

10 Dec 2021
Coffee House Shots
Is Boris in for a Christmas rebellion?
12 min listen

Boris Johnson's problems are not going away anytime soon and he is facing extreme pressure on several fronts going into the weekend. Hypocrisy charges from the media and the Labour Party, more scandal regarding the No. 10 flat refurbishment, and a massive Tory rebellion regarding his Plan B measures. Not to mention his recent announcement that it is time to have a serious conversation about vaccine mandates. 'This anger is diffuse across the parliamentary party. It isn't just one ideological faction that are upset with him.' - James ForsythKaty Balls breaks down the Prime Minister's many woes with James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman. Subscribe to The Spectator's Evening Blend email, from Isabel Hardman and Katy Balls, for analysis of the day's political news and a summary of the best pieces from our website.

Is Boris in for a Christmas rebellion?

Thursday

9 Dec 2021
The Tories have no answer to the Channel crossings crisis

One of this government’s favourite tactics is to act as if the beginning of its time in office was the general election of December 2019. This means it can dodge the usual charge against any party that has been in power for more than a decade: why haven’t you fixed the problem already? Some problems, though, have clearly got much worse since December 2019. One of those is the situation in the Channel. Five years ago, pretty much no one was attempting to cross it illegally on a small boat. So far this year, more than 25,000 migrants have arrived via this route. Last month, 1,185 landed in one day: a new record. The crisis poses a particular problem for the government for two reasons. First, Boris Johnson has made much of taking back control of Britain’s borders.

The Tories have no answer to the Channel crossings crisis
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