James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.
Earlier in the camapign, a two point lead in the YouGov tracker poll caused panic in Tory ranks. But tonight, there’s a certain sense of relief that the Tories are back ahead by this margin with You Gov. The numbers are Tories up one to 33, Lib Dems down two to 31 and Labour up
Every time a Conservative is asked by the media about Nick Clegg they should reply, ‘Nick Clegg’s a clever politician, a formidable opponent.’ This formulation won’t make the voters think that the Toires are being nasty about their opponent but it will remind them that Clegg is a politician which is a problem for him
These have been a grim few days for the Conservative party. But there is a sense, just a sense mind, that the worst might be behind them. Today’s ICM poll shows the Lib Dems still surging, up 3 to 30, but Tory support is only down one from Sunday’s ICM poll to 33. Labour is
Tonight’s YouGov poll is another reminder, if oner were needed, that the Tories have to burst the Nick Clegg bubble. But any direct attacks on Clegg are dangerous as they present him with an opportunity to attack the same old politics. What the Tories need to do is to deflate it with humour. They should
If the Tories are to beat back this Lib Dem surge, there are three things they need to do. First, they need to establish Cameron as the insurgent, anti-establishment candidate. It might seem odd to urge the leader of the Conservative party to be the anti-establishment cadidate, but the establishment in this country is now
Labour high command will be very satisfied with Brown’s performance on Marr this morning. There was far less of the tetchiness that we usually see from Brown in interviews and by being invited to talk about the ash cloud and the government’s response to it at the beginning, Brown was able to assume some of
A BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday has the Lib Dems in the lead. The poll, which uses a similar methodology to YouGov, puts the Lib Dems up 12 on 32, the Tories down 7 to 31 and Labour down three to 28. Time will tell if this is a bubble that will burst
There’s another poll putting the Lib Dems in second place now, Com Res has them up eight to 29, the Tories down four to 31 and Labour down two to 27. An ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph has the Lib Dems up 7 to 27. The Tories are on 34, down 3, and Labour are down two to 29.
The more I think about David Cameron’s debate performance the more I think that the problem with it was that it was too one-note. He said little that would make voters think of him as a different kind of Conservative. As with his 2008 conference speech, there was too much health and safety and not
James Forsyth reviews the week in politics ‘But has it cut through?’ This is the concern that nags at the Tories after every announcement. They know that they are winning the day-to-day battle in the media but they worry about whether this is making any difference in the country. They fret that the campaign, so
The results of tonight’s YouGov daily tracker poll are going to put the cat amongst the pigeons. The Lib Dems are second on 30, the Tories are on 33 and Labour 28. Now, this is just one poll. We don’t know whether those who have shifted to the Lib Dems will shift back as the
Tonight’s debate was a good thing for British democracy. In terms of which party gained, there can be no doubt that the Lib Dems were the big winners. Nick Clegg took full advantage of the opportunity that the debate presented him with. In what will have been the first time that many voters have seen
In a move designed to take advantage of everyone’s need to fill air time before the debates, the Tories have launched a new ad spoofing that picture of Brown walking through a set of double doors while two aides squat on the ground holding it open. The ad is just up here in Manchester but
I’ve just been watching the feed coming out of the studio where the debate is taking place and what struck me was how much of an advantage his central position will give David Cameron. In all the shots of the studio, the middle lectern is where your eye is drawn first. The leaders, I’m told,
I’ve just arrived in the press room in Manchester where the media will be watching the debate; the hotel lobby is full of hacks and spin doctors. The question being asked is whether this is the moment that the electorate begins to engage with the election. Although I know that some in CCHQ worry that
The leaders will be allowed to use their own make-up artists tonight. This might sound like a trivial detail but how the leaders look is, sadly, going to be an important factor in who gets the most benefit from the debate. I expect that the big beneficiary from being allowed to use his own make-up
Tomorrow’s debate between Brown, Cameron and Clegg is going to be the most important event of the campaign so far. All the parties are playing the expectations game at the moment—I wouldn’t be surprised if a party claimed that their opponent is the best debater since Cicero—but I suspect that the expectations game will be
Looking at the papers this morning and watching the news last night, you realise what a benefit in the image stakes the Tory cash advantage gives them. The Tories can afford to hire out better venues than the other two parties. So while Labour launched their manifesto in hospital and the Lib Dems theirs at
On Sunday, on the Politics Show Vince Cable said that David Laws had been wrong to say on Newsnight that the health and international developments budgets were ringfenced. But the Lib Dem manifesto says the Libs Dems will, ‘Increase the UK’s aid budget to reach the UN target of 0.7 percent of GNI by 2013.’
There are polls out tonight from the two firms polling for the Tories, Populus and YouGov, and they have pretty different results. Populus has the Tories on 36, down three from last week, Labour on 33 and the Lib Dems on 21. In the YouGov tracker, the Tories are on 39, Labour are down two