James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.
If there is one aspect where the Tories still feel that they lag behind Labour it is expectations management. Tory staffers feel frustrated that Labour succeeds so easily in getting its worst case scenarios into the journalistic blood stream. But once again things are going to be a lot worse for Labour than even they
It appears pretty much certain that the Tories have won tonight’s by-election and reports are that they might have done so by a truly staggering margin. If the margins that are being discussed are accurate, and it is likely that they are, then this really could endanger Brown’s position. It seems that tonight is going
The result from Crewe and Nantwich is expected between 2 and 3am. As long as there’s coffee in the Coffee House, we’ll be covering it. So check back in later this evening for our by-election special.
Over on Red Box, Sam Coates has a report of some apparent dirty tricks in Crewe.
There was an important story in yesterday’s New York Times about the apparent success of the Iraqi army’s operation in Sadr City. Here’s how it opens: “Iraqi forces rolled unopposed through the huge Shiite enclave of Sadr City on Tuesday, a dramatic turnaround from the bitter fighting that has plagued the Baghdad neighborhood for two
Westminster might be waiting for the voters of Crewe and Nantwich to cast their ballots, but we have already learned one thing from the campaign: Labour’s policy cupboard is bare. That Labour’s hopes of hanging onto this normally safe seat rest solely on hoping for a sympathy vote for the daughter of the popular, recently
Politics Home’s Insider panel’s benchmarks for the Crewe and Nantwich by-election give us a pretty good idea of how the pundit class would treat various results tonight. If the Tory majority is over 4,000, the panel thinks, that Labour would go into a tailspin and it would be confirmed that the Tories were on their
I’ve just been filing in an application for credentials to the Labour party conference and was gobsmacked to find that you could not declare your nationality to be British. Instead, you had to pick English, Northern Irish, Scottish, Welsh or a foreign nationality. I’m sure that this is just an oversight. But given how much
Sadly, the abortion vote last night pretty much split down party lines with 83 percent of Tories in favour of a lower limit and 80 percent of Labour MPs supported the 24 week status quo. It would be a disaster for British politics if abortion was to become a partisan issue—imagine the Commons continually changing
Labour must be hoping that not many people in Crewe and Nantwich decide to watch the evening news tonight. For if they do, what they’ll see is hardly like to encourage them to vote Labour. The first item, if the BBC website is any guide, is going to be Jacqui Smith being berated by Jan
Tonight the attempts to reduce the time limit for so-called ‘social abortions’ were defeated. The 22 week amendment lost by 304 to 233, the 20 week one 332 to 190, 16 weeks by 387 to 84 and 12 weeks by 393 to 71. It is tragic that the attempt to reduce the limit from 24
Over on Americano, some thoughts on today’s primaries in Kentucky and Oregon and what it means that by the end of night Obama will, almost certainly, have an absolute majority of pledged delegates.
Today, Teddy Kennedy’s doctors announced that he has a malignant brain tumour. This is sad news. Whatever one thinks of Kennedy’s politics, there’s little doubt that he’s been the most effective legislator in recent US history. The finest speech Teddy Kennedy has ever given was at the 1980 Democratic convention. Kennedy had unsuccessfully challenged President Carter
Today’s ComRes poll, the weekend one by ICM and reports from the ground have persuaded most of us that the Tories are going to win Crewe and Nantwich. That alone is a sign of how fast events have moved in recent weeks. Just before the local and London elections, the consensus on Coffee House was
John Denham is now only 7 to 1 to be the next leader of the Labour party and Mike Smithson is tipping him as the potential Gordon replacement best placed to keep the government alive in the south. So, I was interested to see how he’d do on Straight Talk which is one of the
A new ICM poll for The Guardian has the Tories up two on 41, Labour down seven to 27 and the Lib Dems on 22, a three point rise on last month. This is the lowest level of support for Labour ever recorded in The Guardian / ICM poll which started in1984. There is no silver
Here’s the latest quote from Tamsin Dunwoody: “I am just a single, unemployed mother of five fighting hard for a job” Now, come on Tamsin—you’re also the daughter of two MPs, the grandaughter of a peer, a former member of the Welsh Assembly and a university graduate. PS: The quote is from Sky’s online debate
Stephan Shakespeare had a smart post up on Centre Right over the weekend, arguing that Labour were weapons-testing the class issue in Crewe. But it seems that Labour’s clumsy-premature use of the issue has actually forced them to remove it from their general election arsenal.Today’s Standard reports that This is good news for the Conservatives.
Alasdair Palmer’s column in The Sunday Telegraph on the whole Undercover Mosque business is essential reading. Undercover Mosque was the Channel 4 programme which revealed the extremism that was being preached inside a Mosque in Birmingham. Rather than examine that, the West Midlands Police decided to investigate the programme makers. It ended up referring the
Labour’s campaign in Crewe is, rightly being, lambasted. It is depressing that after 11 years in power, Labour can’t give voters a positive reason to vote for the party and have instead had to revert to the tired rhetoric of class prejudice. But what we shouldn’t overlook is how the issue is exacerbating the split