James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.
Late last night, there was a sense of optimism among ministers that the government’s revised deal might have a chance. But those hopes were crushed this morning by Geoffrey Cox’s blunt legal advice. With Cox declaring that the legal risk was unchanged, the DUP were never going to back the deal and that meant the
There was no triumphalism in Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker’s press conference. Nor was there much detail. May talked about how the joint interpretative instrument meant that the backstop could be challenged and taken to arbitration if the EU was trying to apply ‘the backstop indefinitely’. What May did not mention was how this arbitration
There’s increasing chatter in Westminster about a possible Brexit breakthrough. The argument goes that if the Tusk / Juncker letter of the 14th of January was turned into a protocol—which would be legally binding, then there would be grounds for Geoffrey Cox to change his legal advice. Why, because the letter declares that: ‘The European
There are no good options left for Theresa May. Barring a remarkable turnaround (and there is more optimism on the government side than there was this morning), she is not going to get enough on the backstop to satisfy the DUP and so her deal will not pass on Tuesday. Her deal failing will trigger
The government’s efforts to get changes to the backstop have run into a brick wall in Brussels. The EU thinks, with justification, that MPs won’t allow no deal and so feels under no pressure to make significant concessions. As I write in The Sun this morning, one minister fully briefed on the negotiations says ‘we’re
Theresa May was only ever going to win approval for her Brexit deal by persuading MPs that it was the least worst option. Remain-supporting MPs, she hoped, would come to believe that her deal was the only way of preventing no deal. At the same time, she hoped that Tories worried about ‘no Brexit’ would
Government loyalists are grim-faced today. There is no sign of a breakthrough in Brussels and Theresa May’s deal appears to be heading for another defeat on Tuesday. May’s problem is that everyone thinks that they get what they want by voting against her deal. As I say in the magazine this week, lots of ERG
Theresa May was only ever going to win approval for her Brexit deal by persuading MPs that it was the least worst option. Remain-supporting MPs, she hoped, would come to believe that her deal was the only way of preventing no deal. At the same time, she hoped that Tories worried about ‘no Brexit’ would
MPs have 10 days to pass Theresa May’s Brexit deal or calamity strikes, I say in The Sun this morning. May’s deal is far from perfect. But what will happen if it doesn’t pass is truly appalling. If May’s deal hasn’t won a Commons vote by March 12th, the Commons will vote on whether to
On Tuesday night, as I write in the magazine this week, Theresa May met Leave-voting junior ministers. Her aim was to reassure them that she didn’t want an Article 50 extension and if there was one, it would be short. One of those present then asked her what would happen if Olly Robbins came back
The only certainty in the Brexit process is that there is no certainty. Brexiteers had long sought solace in the fact that, by law, the United Kingdom will leave the European Union on 29 March with or without a deal. But it’s now clear that this is not necessarily the case — or even likely.
Today’s Cabinet was not a happy affair. I’m told that Liam Fox, Gavin Williamson and Andrea Leadsom all made clear their grave concerns about the Government’s new strategy. There was considerable anger at Amber Rudd, Greg Clark and David Gauke for how they have heaped pressure on May to offer this vote on a delay
Jeremy Corbyn will tell Labour MPs tonight that the party will back a public vote on Brexit. This is the first sign of how The Independent Group has changed the political weather; it is hard to imagine Corbyn accepting this policy without the threat of more defections. Now, we wait to see the details of
I understand that ministers are being pressured to rapidly approve a new, £1.6bn towns fund. The suspicion among ministers is that this fund, which is spread over seven years, is all part of Number 10’s efforts to get the support of some Labour MPs for Theresa May’s Brexit deal. The write round asking for ministers’
Brexit is back in the Commons next week. As I write in The Sun this morning, two of the big questions are: what will Eurosceptic Tories accept in terms of changes to the backstop and will the Cooper amendment pass. A document circulating among Tory Eurosceptics sets out what MPs should and shouldn’t regard as
There is a great opportunity in front of the Tories. As I say in the magazine this week, there’s 12 more years in power for the taking for them because of the split in the Labour party. But seizing this opportunity will require the Tories to temper their passions on Brexit. There are two Brexit
In September 2016, the Labour party reached a turning point but then failed to turn. The re-election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader with an increased majority, despite the opposition of two thirds of his own MPs, seemed to make a split inevitable. But it wasn’t until this week that Labour MPs found the nerve to
Today’s PMQs was a rather surreal occasion. Sitting high up on the opposition benches were the new Independent Group of MPs. But none of them tried to ask a question and both Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May chose to ignore the issue. Instead, we were treated to May repeatedly raising the defection of a Labour
Sajid Javid’s decision to strip Shamima Begum of her British citizenship leaves me deeply uneasy. I can understand why a Home Secretary charged with keeping the public safe would want to do whatever possible to keep this woman out of the country. But Begum was born in this country, grew up here and was educated
Is this a split in the Labour party or something more? At today’s launch, Chuka Umunna was clear that the Independent Group want to attract MPs from parties other than Labour. Tory party sources admit that they ‘would not be surprised’ if some Tory MPs were to join this new group. Right now, the values
