Matthew Lynn is a financial columnist and author of ‘Bust: Greece, The Euro and The Sovereign Debt Crisis’ and ‘The Long Depression: The Slump of 2008 to 2031’
In recent weeks, Britain has wrapped up trade deals with India and the United States and is on the lookout for new agreements. Keir Starmer has agreed a ‘re-set’ with the European Union that will make it slightly easier to export goods across the continent. It has been a good few weeks for ‘Global Britain’.
It will be like Liz Truss on roller skates. The next election may still be four years away, and the manifestos still need to be fleshed out. Even so, the City has already started issuing stark warnings of a run on the pound if there is a Reform government led by Nigel Farage as Prime
China has wrapped up a pretty good trade deal. The UK has managed to agree to lift some of the US tariffs. With President Trump touring the Gulf states this week, they may soon have an arrangement in place, especially as Qatar took the precaution of gifting the president a new 747. Japan may well
This weekend, the United States struck a deal with China that will see American tariffs on Beijing’s exports come back down to manageable levels again, while China will lower its levies on imports from the US. The giant container ports on both sides of the Pacific can now be re-opened. The factories across China can
Keir Starmer says it is a ‘fantastic, historic’ day after signing a trade deal with the United States, but is the agreement really something to celebrate? Ten per cent tariffs, announced last month, still apply to most UK goods entering the US The government is no doubt cock-a-hoop to be the first country to get
It was a mark of respect. After Warren Buffett, who can lay claim to the title of the greatest investor of all time, told his army of loyal shareholders over the weekend that he was finally stepping down from the Berkshire Hathaway empire he has built over the last six decades, the firm’s shares fell
It should have been a triumph. We might not have managed to get a trade with the United States over the line, and we are still waiting for the long-promised ‘reset’ with the European Union. But the Labour government has managed to complete a major trade deal with India, and that should prove a significant
There is not much that Chancellor Rachel Reeves can look forward to right now. The Labour party has just been hammered in the local elections. The economy has stagnated, and government borrowing has started to spiral out of control. There is, however, this: the City now expects interest rates to start falling at the fastest
President Trump’s imposition of huge tariffs on everything America imports on ‘Liberation Day’ at the start of this month has been widely condemned as one of the worst economic policy blunders of all time. There were fears the stock market would collapse. Investors are abandoning the United States for Europe. And the country is about
Ever since President Trump started his tariff war earlier this month, the European Union’s response has been surprisingly clear. It should retaliate with tariffs of its own. It should focus on its own economic sovereignty. And it should make sure that targeted American industries feel the consequences. In other words, it should hit back, and
The pictures of a triumphant Rachel Reeves holding aloft a US trade deal as she boards a plane home from Washington should have been all over the front pages this morning. After spending the weekend in Washington, and with a personal meeting with the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the advance briefings were that a
As the Chancellor Rachel Reeves flies into Washington for a series of high-level meetings, there is lots of spin from the Treasury that she is about to tie up a trade deal with the United States. The plan is that it would save the UK from tariffs and may even give a much needed boost
A deal will be worked out with China to reduce the tariffs. The chairman of the Federal Reserve won’t be fired. Over the last 24 hours, President Trump has softened his stance on two key planks of his economic policy. It is not hard to work out why. For all the bluster, Trump is ultimately
President Trump yesterday escalated his attacks on the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell over his reluctance to cut interest rates, prompting a fresh plunge on Wall Street. The President may appear determined to cut his central banker down to size. And yet the reality is that Powell is completely right not to cut
The White House reportedly expects that a trade deal between the United States and the UK could be signed within the next few weeks. This should be a big deal, at least for the small island if not for the world’s biggest economy. There could be a grand signing ceremony at Buckingham Palace. Or at
Forget whisky, cars or chemicals. The real blow to the British economy from President Trump’s determination to impose steep tariffs on everything the United States imports from the rest of the world is still to come. Over the next few days, Trump plans to unveil levies on pharmaceuticals. And if the UK can’t find a
A recession now looks even more certain for the United States than it does for the UK. Output has flattened. The chaotic implementation of Donald Trump’s tariff regime has left businesses bewildered. And consumers will soon be facing huge price rises. Of course, the States might well emerge in better shape at the end of
There will be some stirring speeches about saving jobs. There will be lots of grand rhetoric about securing a great British industry. Who knows, some of the more mischievous Labour backbenchers may even break out into a chorus on the Red Flag. Parliament will vote on Saturday in favour of an emergency bill that will
Donald Trump has peered into the abyss. The US President watched the Wall Street meltdown and the global trading system (from which America benefits as much as anyone) start to collapse, and he hit pause. The conventional narrative will be that Trump has blinked, but I think he simply got what he wanted. Yesterday’s decision
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This week: Trump’s tariffs – madness or mastermind? ‘Shock tactics’ is the headline of our cover article this week, as deputy editor Freddy Gray reflects on a week that has seen the US President upend the global economic order, with back and forth announcements on reciprocal and retaliatory tariffs. At the time of writing, a