Wolfgang Münchau is a former co-editor of Financial Times Deutschland and director of Eurointelligence.
Sixteen years after Angela Merkel became Chancellor, Germany will have a new leader next week: Olaf Scholz. We might expect Scholz to enact a few domestic reforms but do little to change the country’s foreign policy — as is the tradition for a new German government. But this time, the consensus behind the country’s foreign
An iron curtain has descended on Europe, and once again, it goes right through the middle of Germany. The average national infection rate is currently exploding, but the real story is not the average, but the vast gap between east and west, with another gap between the north and south. The north-west of Germany is
Nato and the EU are fearing a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine. They have reason to be concerned, given that Russia would not blink to escalate while the West is still fumbling around on how best to respond. Brussels and Washington are in firefighting mode, while Russia chooses the when and the where. Annexation in the
Last week, the Bank of England sent a number of confused messages. One was almost shocking: Andrew Bailey said that it isn’t his job to steer markets on interest rates ‘day by day and week by week’. But as economic commentator Matthew C. Klein dryly noted this is literally his job. It is debatable whether
Until yesterday, it was possible to imagine that there would be a political solution to the standoff between the EU and Poland. Poland would reform the disciplinary chamber for its judges, and the EU would be satisfied that its principal grievance had been addressed. The Polish government had already promised to reform its disciplinary chamber,
The EU is notoriously bad at learning from its own mistakes, mostly because it is unable to recognise these mistakes in the first place. A notable exception is austerity. There is now a consensus that it was a disaster, which blighted Europe’s economic resilience for a generation. A mistake the EU has not recognised yet
The results of the German election have shifted somewhat since last night’s exit poll. What we know for sure is that a red-red-green coalition — between the centre-left SPD, far-left Die Linke and the Greens — is short of a majority, which is contrary to what every single opinion poll projected in the last few
Germany’s election campaign has taken many unexpected turns. In January, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), were leading by about 20 percentage points. By April, the Greens were ahead. By July, the CDU/CSU had bounced back, and then all of a sudden, the Social Democrats (SPD) came out of nowhere to a solid lead by last
It is hard to overstate the importance of the so-called Aukus alliance between the US, the UK and Australia — and the implicit geopolitical disaster for the EU. The alliance is the culmination of multiple European failures: naivety at the highest level of the EU about US foreign policy; Brussels’s political misjudgements of Joe Biden
Eurozone core inflation came in at 1.6 per cent in August, while headline inflation hit 3 per cent. In Germany, at least, the all-important national metric went up by a notch — to 3.9 per cent. The recorded inflation data are, to some extent, a bounce-back recovery effect — coupled with the rise in German
One of the great cautionary tales of the last five years is how political campaigns can start off with what looks like a strong case and end up losing with 48 per cent of the vote. What happened to the Remain campaign is now happening to the campaign to deploy vaccines – and in several
As the floods which have devastated homes and caused over 150 deaths recede in the Rhineland, three types of political implications have already emerged. People are talking about climate change – for the first time during the campaign. Armin Laschet, Merkel’s successor, failed to rise to the occasion when he was caught laughing as the
There is an interesting history to the politics of floods in Germany – and a possibility that history might be repeating itself. The official death toll in Germany has risen to 93 this morning, but 1300 people are still reported missing in the region of Ahrweiler, in western Germany. This is without a doubt the
Just in time for the football final, Italy’s Five Star party reached a deal. Giuseppe Conte, a former prime minister, has agreed to take on the leadership of the party, but only on condition that he will be fully in charge of the politics of the movement and of the parliamentary party. Beppe Grillo, the party’s
The German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung has been publishing leaks from the European Commission of its Fit for 55 programme, a reference to the 55 per cent CO2 reduction target for 2030. A critical part of that programme is the so-called carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). The idea is to a keep a level playing
Perhaps the most absurd thing ever said about Angela Merkel is that she was the de facto leader of the western world. She has certainly been one of Europe’s most successful politicians, if you define success as political survival. But as she comes to the end of her 16 years in office, her luck is
There’s been a lot of hype around the green light given by the European Commission yesterday to Italy’s recovery plan. But let’s break it down: the final headline numbers are €68.9 billion in EU grants by the year 2026 and €123 billion in loans. If you take the grant component, and divide it over the
If you like a snapshot of a bang-on target, this is it: headline inflation in the euro area for May came in at 1.99 per cent on an annual basis, which gives a whole new meaning to close to, but below 2 per cent. The number itself, however, is entirely meaningless. As ever, the more
This is Brexit all over again. The Swiss government pulled the plug on its seven-year negotiation of the EU-Swiss institutional framework agreement on Wednesday. Its failure was driven by familiar issues: freedom of movement and dynamic alignment. Just one year ago, the EU’s Brexit negotiators still insisted on dynamic alignment — the idea that Britain
The collapse in UK-EU trade after 1 January was widely reported. What has not been reported nearly as much is that UK exports have made a near-complete recovery. They were up 46.6 per cent in February after falling by 42 per cent in January. Imports are not there yet. They were up 7.3 per cent
