Tonight’s first televised debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, on Long Island, New York, is expected to generate a ‘Super-Bowlesque’ audience. Analysts say that up to 112 million viewers could tune in, a figure that Donald Trump will interpret as an indication of his immense popularity. Even on this side of the Atlantic, a large number of people will stay up to the early hours (2am – 3.30am) to see the Donald versus Mrs C, such is the excitement surrounding the presidential election. So what can we expect? Here are six things to look out for:
1) Clinton will try so hard to appear healthy that she will end up looking mentally ill. After Donald Trump dubbed Jeb Bush the ‘low-energy candidate’, Jeb took to running on to stages, bouncing up and down like a prize-fighter. He looked absurd. In the days following her collapse, Clinton appears to be doing something similar — she now bounds towards the microphone like a granny on steroids (which, perhaps, is what she is). But the act is unconvincing, even a little disturbing. Clinton looks a bit demented, which isn’t a good image for an aspiring Commander-in-Chief. Moreover, given the fact she is not in good health, it will be impossible for her — a 68-year-old woman recovering from pneumonia — to stay lively for 90 minutes. Expect her to look tired, at some point, and for the Trumpists on social media to trumpet her exhaustion as a sign that she is a walking corpse.
2) Donald Trump will say something horrific. The TV networks — the entire internet-media complex — are expecting (hoping) that the Donald will appall us, and he has a tendency to oblige. In fact, even if he doesn’t obviously insult women, or minorities, or the disabled, or Islam, the media will probably seize on one of his badly formulated phrases and turn it into a controversy. It’s what we do.
3) It will be seriously boring in parts. Presidential TV debates always are, especially the most high-profile ones. The candidates are under so much pressure that they become risk-averse. They stick to their mental scripts and stay on the defensive. That’s certainly what happened with the hotly-anticipated clashes between the ‘Maverick’ John McCain and Barack Obama: what everybody thought would be a dramatic clash ended up being a flat stalemate, a bore draw. So don’t expect those 100 plus million Americans to stay tuned, especially since the NFL is also on tonight.
Americano podcast: Freddy Gray, Kate Andrews and Michael B Dougherty ask: Can Trump win?
4) Donald Trump will bore you, but not as much as Hillary Clinton. Trump won’t be dull, you might be thinking — backlash is his brand and outrage is his modus operandi. He’s the most box-office politician since, well, those European dictators of the mid-20th century. He has spent the last year thrilling and appalling everyone by his offensiveness — surely he’ll step up on the biggest night of his political life? Well no, people find Trump’s TV performances fascinating because we tend to watch the edited highlights — the headline-grabbing soundbites. Anyone who has been to a Trump event can tell you that the reality is less exhilarating: Trump tends to gabble incoherently in different directions; he produces moments of lucidity in between long sections of abstract guff. Even Trump’s convention speech — the most polished, eloquent, serious TV performance he has given — was rambling. However, Trump cannot compete with Clinton in the dullard stakes. See the next point …
5) Clinton will talk policy. Trump will do emotion. Clinton’s great advantage is that she has always been serious about reaching the White House — whereas Trump has not. Trump’s bid to lead the free world started out as a PR trick: he wanted to use the free publicity of a presidential campaign to promote his businesses and his celebrity. (He still does, in fact). Trump has ideas, and popular ones too — build a wall; destroy Isis quickly; remove the carried-interest loophole — but they are vague and superficial. Clinton on the other hand has a team of dedicated wonks churning out reams and reams of policy documents which nobody, apart from Hillary Rodham Clinton, will ever read. She has complicated plans to reform American education, childcare and so on, and she will try to explain them tonight. Trump doesn’t dwell on details because he doesn’t know or care about details. Instead, he speaks from the heart — or what he imagines is a heart — about what Americans want and why they are angry. He promises to restore American Greatness; she outlines her vision for a tapered, income-based system to pay for higher education called ‘The New College Compact’. Team Clinton hopes her grasp of policy will make her seem more presidential, and they are right. Team Trump knows that policy bores the public, and they are right.
6) Donald Trump will say the debates have been rigged, whatever happens, and his fans will agree. Trump, perhaps unconsciously anxious that he doesn’t have the wit to spar with Hillary for an hour and a half, has already given himself an excuse to fail. The debates, he says, have been set up to hurt him — ‘They want the host to go after Trump,’ he told Fox News recently. This is expectation management. If Trump is seen to win, he’ll boast that even the media’s prejudice couldn’t hold him back. If he loses, or the TV pundits make out that he has lost, his supporters can gripe about how elite America has gamed the debates in Hillary’s favour. Just wait and see…
The Spectator has launched a new Americano podcast – hosted by Freddy Gray. Each week, it will bring together writers from both sides of the Atlantic to discuss the race for the White House. To subscribe, click here – or to listen to the latest podcast, use the player below:
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