Last night a group of Liberal Democrat and Conservative MPs met to discuss Lords reform. Public outbursts from the Conservative backbench have so far focused on opposition to the bill and the programme motion that the whips are trying to impose on the legislation, but the group of pro-reform MPs, who have informally dubbed themselves the Democratic Majority, are optimistic that the legislation will make a successful passage through the House of Commons. There are 27 Conservatives on board at the moment along all the Lib Dems, standing up the list of 100 MPs that the rebel leaders claim to have among their number.
Ringleader Jake Berry, a member of the 2010 intake and PPS to Grant Shapps, says he doesn’t recognise the numbers being bandied about by the rebels: ‘I’m struggling to see how there are 100 potential rebels against Lords reform in the party, and I’m optimistic that this legislation will go through.’ He believes that it is a Conservative principle that the Lords be reformed, and hopes that the group, which he co-leads with fellow Conservative Laura Sandys and Liberal Democrat Stephen Gilbert, will attract many more members. There is a desire among Democratic Majority members, he says to fulfil the manifesto commitments of both parties.
The first big battle for the different camps is over the programme motion, which the rebels wish to oppose for a variety of reasons. It is on this vote, rather than the second reading of the bill, that 100 MPs are expected to rebel. James reported in his column last week that whips are mulling not tabling that motion at all, and are instead threatening any would-be filibusters that the debate could continue into Parliamentary recess. The idea would be that after four weeks of sittings lasting until the dawn of the next day, support for the rebels would fall away, and that the whips could then successfully introduce a guillotine.
The rebels have now come up with a way of beating the whips at their own game.They realise that an exhausted parliament of MPs who have been kept in the House until the small hours, and away from their spouses, children and beds, will not work in their favour if a guillotine is imposed later. Instead, sources tell me, they intend to halt their filibustering at a reasonable hour. That way they hope to keep Labour and wavering colleagues in their own party on side.
The rebels feel that Cameron is already giving too much ground to his coalition partners: one Tory MP told me that ‘the Prime Minister is bending over backwards for Nick Clegg’. They point out that this rebellion is not only far bigger than the 81 rebels over a European Union referendum, but that it also includes potential first-time rebels who are typically deeply loyal to the Prime Minister such as Penny Mordaunt and Jesse Norman. Berry and his pro-reform group are going to have to work hard to turn that around.
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