Moscow this morning hailed the ‘liberation’ of Soledar, a strategic point in the battle for control of the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine. The Wagner Group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Wednesday that his mercenaries – who are spearheading the offensive – were in control of the salt-mining town (or what remains of it). It was denied at the time, but the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said it believes Russian forces have taken ‘most, if not all’ of the town.
Ukraine insists that the fighting is ongoing and that its soldiers ‘are bravely trying to hold the defence’, but the institute says this probably refers to positions around Soledar and that it now seems that Moscow has ‘pushed Ukrainian forces out of the western outskirts of the settlement’. The British Ministry of Defence also says Russia probably has control of ‘most of the settlement’. But in a video, a Ukrainian soldier asks people not to believe ‘Russian propaganda’ and says that ‘fierce battles’ for Soledar are still taking place.
If the Russian army has already captured Soledar, there are still reasons for Kyiv to deny it
Russia switched its main attacking efforts to Soledar at the end of December after months of failing to take Bakhmut, a city some 20 km to the south-east, which has been half-destroyed by the fighting. But tactically, taking Soledar might may be ‘at best a Russian Pyrrhic tactical victory’, says the ISW, as Moscow – stung by recent defeats – has committed significant resources into a battle that has been compared to ‘the Ypres or the Stalingrad of the 2020s’. Russia’s goal will be to encircle Bakhmut by cutting off supplies to the Ukrainian army using the Siversk-Bakhmut and Slovyansk-Bakhmut highways. Ukraine, however, retains stable defence of these roots – and is focused on preserving it, rather than going all-out defending Soledar. For this reason, British intelligence says Russia is ‘unlikely’ to move to surround Bakhmut.
But there is another goal too: money and propaganda. The Kremlin is claiming victory, telling Russian reporters ‘this is not the time to stop, this is not the time to rub your hands. The main work is still ahead’. The mines of Soledar and Bakhmut, both of which are rich in salt and gypsum, will be valuable to the likes of Prigozhin, a Kremlin oligarch. Europe’s largest salt production company, Artemsil, is located in Soledar. That may explain why the most professional units of the Wagner Group were sent to capture the town. There is also an ongoing conflict between Prigozhin, who is attempting to gain political influence in the Kremlin, and the Russian defence ministry. Prigozhin has criticised the ministry for its corruption and bad strategy and claims that it ‘constantly steals victory from (the) Wagner Group’.
The Ukrainian weather has been a problem for both sides – not because it’s freezing but because it’s too mild. Heavy equipment doesn’t travel well: tanks get stuck in swamps. Now, Russia is dispatching small assault groups of up to nine people to carry out the attacks, according to Colonel Vladislav Seleznyov of the Ukrainian armed forces. This strategy allows them to avoid the concentrated fire of Ukrainian artillery. ‘Battles are fought directly in the city, and this increases the risk of losses, because the most difficult type of battle is a battle in an urbanised area,’ he says.
Part of the fighting has been happening near the entrances to the tunnels of the salt mines. Theoretically, Russian troops could use these tunnels to attack the Ukrainian army from the rear. But it would be difficult: they would need to be sure not to get lost underground and would have to find a way to keep electricity for going down to a depth of 200 metres – and for coming back up. The Kremlin is instead using an easier strategy: to overwhelm Ukrainian soldiers with the amount of bodies. ‘The enemy advances literally on the corpses of their own soldiers, using artillery and multiple rocket launchers, covering even their own fighters with fire,’ saidAnna Malyar, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister.
Victory in Soledar is crucial to sustain Vladimir Putin’s propaganda machine. During the first wave of conscription, 300,000 Russians were drafted into the army. In the coming days, the Kremlin may call up another 500,000, according to Ukrainian intelligence. Rumours in Russia have confirmed it: three weeks ago the Moscow Times published an article saying that the authorities forbade the Russian mass media to report on the conscription for war in Ukraine. The capture of Soledar would be Russia’s first victory in many months, feeding the propaganda’s calls to join the army. Also, even in the destroyed town, Russian forces will be more protected than in the fields.
ISW analytics have found that the capture of Soledar – a small Cossack town – will be a relatively small advantage for Russian forces. The Wagner Group may have sent its best people, but even the mercenaries do not have a limitless supply of fighters. The heavy casualties will need to be replenished by a fresh conscription drive or by transferring Russian troops from other hotspots. This will be hard if (as Ukrainian command keeps hinting) a new offensive is coming. If tanks from Poland and Britain arrive as promised, Ukraine can win a significant advantage against Russian troops who are stuck using Soviet-era weapons (and are highly likely to be using convict labour to make more weapons).
If the Russian army has already captured Soledar, there are still reasons for Kyiv to deny it. Ukrainian soldiers have been fighting for every centimetre of that town while dozens of lives have been lost in the past weeks. And there is still hope that Russia can be pushed out of the city.
Some in Ukraine may see the loss of Soledar as a Ukrainian failure (after months of small victories) which may, in turn, weaken western support. A CBS/YouGov poll of 2,100 Americans (the first following Volodymyr Zelensky’s trip to Washington), suggests a slim majority of Republican voters (52%) oppose sending more aid to Ukraine. But the fight for Soledar should reinforce Zelensky’s point: the battle is in a crucial phase, and more weapons are needed to repel the invader.
Svitlana Morenets writes a weekly email, Ukraine in Focus, for The Spectator. Sign up for free here
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