The most likely winner of tomorrow’s Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (3.35 p.m.), the most valuable flat race handicap in Europe, is Sweet William. John and Thady Gosden’s four-year-old gelding is going for a four-timer and he will land a £300,000 first prize if he achieves it.
Those canny enough to have bagged fancy prices on the favourite can feel pleased with themselves, but odds of no bigger than 7-2 are not for me in a 22-runner handicap in which lots can go wrong for any horse. Furthermore, while Sweet William is certainly not ground dependent, his best run came last time out at Glorious Goodwood on heavy ground, so the likely fast ground may not be ideal.
As usual, I would prefer to look away from the favourite for value, especially with the sponsors offering eight places. Andrew Balding has aimed SCAMPI at this big prize ever since the horse raced to victory in mid-May in the Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap at York. As the race title suggests, that was a ‘win-it-and-you-are-in-it’ race to get qualified for the Ebor.
Scampi won again as recently as a fortnight ago at Ascot’s Shergar Cup meeting, thereby incurring a less-than-ideal 4 lbs penalty for tomorrow’s race. However, I think he will be even better suited by stepping up in trip, while the likely good to firm ground and the assistance of Jason Hart in the saddle are both pluses too. Back him each way at 10-1 with Sky Bet, offering those extra places.
The Willie Mullins pair, Absurde and Jackfinbar, along with home-trained duo, Live Your Dream and Real Dream, all have live chances in the Ebor and this is a fiercely-competitive handicap over 1 mile 6 furlongs in which few runners can be ruled out with confidence. Even my old friend Euchen Glen, despite being ten years old, has a squeak despite being at odds of up to 40-1 with the bookies.
Elsewhere at York tomorrow, Kinross is a warm favourite for tomorrow’s Group 2 Sky Bet City of York Stakes (3 p.m.). He’s an admirable gelding but I am happy to take him on as the ground will be quicker than ideal for him.
With Eve Johnson Houghton’s string in such fine form, 7-furlong specialist JUMBY looks too big at odds of up to 25-1 with the bookies. He will love the ground and is a consistent performer when he can hear his hooves rattle. On balance, back him each way at 20-1 with Sky Bet, offering four places rather than the standard three.
Finally, I like two horses in the final race of York’s splendid four-day meeting: the Sky Bet Finale Handicap (5.20 p.m.). The first is GAASSEE for the formidable William Haggas/Tom Marquand trainer/jockey combination.
A month ago, it looked as though this five-year-old gelding was going to be aimed at the Ebor but, after his prep run at Ascot, the jockey reported to the trainer than he thought the horse would benefit from a drop in trip. So now the Gaassee will run in a contest over 1 mile 2½ furlongs. He has been pulling too hard in recent races as well, so a fast-run race over this distance at a course he loves should be perfect for him. Back Gaassee each way at 10-1 with bet365 or William Hill, both offering five places.
In the same race, I also want to back OVIEDO for the Ed Bethell/Callum Rodriguez trainer/jockey combination. This pair almost did me a big favour yesterday when my each-way tip, Point Lynas put up at 25-1, was pipped at the post by a 40-1 shot in the Clipper Handicap.
The trainer/jockey combination have a good chance of going one better tomorrow with Oviedo, who is back in a handicap after setting his sights higher in his last two races. The three-year-old colt, who does not look the easiest ride, will love the quick ground and the track, so back him each way too, this time at 9-1 with Sky Bet, offering six places. As always, good luck to one and all.
2023 flat season running total: – 18.38 points.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Pending:
1 point each way Jumby at 20-1 in the City of York Stakes, 1/5 odds, four places.
1 point each way Scampi at 10-1 in the Ebor, paying 1/5 odds, eight places.
1 point each way Gaassee at 10-1 in the Sky Bet Finales, 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Oviedo at 9-1 in the Sky Bet Final, 1/5 odds, six places.
Settled bets from last week only:
1 point each way Monsieur Kodi at 15/2 in the Great St Wilfred, 1/5 odds, paying seven places. 6th. + 0.5 points.
1 point each way Point Lynas at 25-1 in the Clipper Handicap, ¼ odds, paying four places. 2nd. +5.25. points.
2 points win Sonny Liston at 20-1 in the Clipper Handicap. 4th. – 2 points
PS I will not keep listing all the settled bets from the season as the list is now very long. However, all the bets are there online in my past columns if people want to see them.
My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
Comments