After nearly a decade of speculation about his political aspirations, Mark Carney has today formally declared that he wants be Canada’s next Prime Minister. The former Bank of England Governor kicked off his campaign to be the next Liberal party leader at a community centre in Alberta, promising to build the fastest-growing economy in the G7 if elected. ‘I’m doing this because Canada is the best country in the world, but it still could be even better,’ he said.
Carney was tipped as one of the first names to replace Justin Trudeau when the latter announced his resignation timetable ten days ago. He teased a bid on Tuesday when appearing on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart, suggesting that for the Liberals to win an election ‘in a situation like this, you need change. You need to address the economy.’ That was the theme to which he returned this afternoon, trading on his experience in running the UK and Canada central banks. ‘I’ve helped manage multiple crises and I’ve helped save two economies. I know how business works’, he said.
The former Goldman Sachs banker has never held public office but is reported to have already received the backing of at least 30 Liberal MPs. His international reputation impresses many Liberals, who are currently polling at just 20 per cent of the vote. Judy Sgro, the long-standing Ontario MP, told me this week. ‘With Carney, it’s his reputation’, she said. ‘A lot of us don’t know him very well but we know of his reputation and there are those who are on the centrist line who are quite supportive of Carney.’
Supporters suggest that the very fact that he has not held ministerial office will allow him to distance the party from the toxic legacy of Justin Trudeau. Carney was notably willing to criticise the incumbent premier today, suggesting that ‘The Prime Minister and his team let their attention wander from the economy too often. I won’t lose focus.’ He added, ‘If you remember one thing I say today – I am going to be completely focused on getting our economy back on track.’
Carney looks well-placed to succeed in his bid. With the likes of Christy Clark, Dominic LeBlanc, Francois Phillipe Champagne and Mélanie Joly all ruling themselves out, it looks increasingly like his major rival will be Chrystia Freeland, the former finance minister. In the fall of Trudeau, she performed the role of Geoffrey Howe to his Margaret Thatcher, penning a damning resignation letter last month after he reportedly tried to demote her. Unsurprisingly, some of Trudeau’s inner circle are now working to advance Carney’s claims, to deny Freeland the crown.
Winning the leadership is one thing: retaining the premiership would be quite another. The Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, have built up a commanding poll lead of 25 points: quite the reversal for the Liberals, often considered Canada’s ‘natural party of government.’ Poilievre’s Tories were privately split on whether it would be advantageous for their chances if the Liberals replaced Trudeau. Most hoped they would face the unpopular incumbent; others note how the Liberals have focused on Trudeau to the detriment of the wider party brand since 2013. Neither Freeland or Carney are adept at online engagement, unlike Poilievre’s significant social media presence.
Mark Carney was predictably withering in his criticisms of Poilievre today, calling him the ‘worst possible’ choice to put on the other side of the negotiating table with Donald Trump. The issue of tariffs is one that looms over the next 12 months of Canadian politics. ‘It’s the great unknown’, remarks one senior Conservative. For his part, Poilievre is trying to turn tariffs into a question of Liberal weakness, repeatedly suggesting that the incumbent government is too supine and slow to make the case for Canada effectively.
One thing is for sure: a contest between Carney and Poilievre would certainly be a bitter one. The pair have clashed before, in a memorable 2021 committee exchange on oil pipelines. Poilievre’s team have spent the past week attacking Carney as a Trudeau 2.0 who supports a carbon tax and will pursue job-killing policies, if elected. While the Liberals take their time choosing a new leader over the next eight weeks, the Conservatives will relish attacking ‘Carbon tax Carney’ as ‘Just like Justin.’ With their ample financial firepower, they intend to define Carney as simply more of the same.
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