Since returning to the political front line during the middle of last year’s election campaign, Nigel Farage has enjoyed remarkable success in his stated quest for Reform for replace the Conservatives as the principal party of the right in Britain. The latest British Social Attitudes (BSA) report, published this week, helps explain how and why he is succeeding.
Boris Johnson rose to success in 2019 thanks to his ability to appeal to socially conservative Britain. These were the voters that provided the core vote for Leave in 2016 and which now voted to ‘get Brexit done’. However, disenchanted with how Brexit has turned out and deeply distrustful of how the country is being governed, over the last twelve months these voters have been flocking to Reform in ever-growing numbers.
Leave voters are decidedly unhappy about how Brexit has turned out
In 2019, no less than two-thirds (66 per cent) of socially conservative Britons, who, apart from backing Brexit, tend to be concerned about immigration and to take an ‘anti-woke’ stance on so-called ‘culture wars’ issues, voted Conservative. Equally, 71 per cent of those who had voted Leave in 2016 were in the Conservative camp then too.
But as the party slumped to its worst ever defeat last year, those numbers tumbled. Just 32 per cent of socially conservative Britain voted Conservative, as did just one in three (33 per cent) of those who had voted Leave. Most of this decline was occasioned by voters switching to Reform, who matched the Tories’ tally among Leave voters (winning 34 per cent) and almost did so among social conservatives (28 per cent).
Since the election, Tory losses among those central to Boris Johnson’s election victory have simply continued apace. When respondents to BSA were recontacted in March, Reform, with 37 per cent support, were now clearly ahead among socially conservative voters, while the Conservatives were well behind on just 26 per cent. Indeed, social conservatives were now barely any more likely than those who are neither socially conservative nor liberal to say they would vote Conservative.
Meanwhile, support for the Conservatives among Leave voters was now down to just 26 per cent, while Reform, with 45 per cent, was well ahead of all the competition. In contrast, just 5 per cent of Remain supporters were backing Reform. Reform’s support is not simply a general protest vote; rather it is very distinctively a cry of disappointment and disenchantment by pro-Brexit Britain.
Leave voters are decidedly unhappy about how Brexit has turned out. In the wake of record levels of immigration, no less than 62 per cent feel that immigration has been higher as a result of Brexit, the very opposite of what most of them had anticipated in 2016. Meanwhile, in an era of poor economic performance, 38 per cent have concluded that the economy has been made worse off by Brexit too.
For a minority, these perceptions have been accompanied by a change of mind about Brexit. But for others, they have served to undermine their trust and confidence in how Britain is being governed.
When it was first delivered, Brexit boosted trust and confidence among Leave voters. For example, in 2020 approaching half (46 per cent) felt that little or no improvement was needed to how Britain was being governed, almost twice the equivalent proportion among Remain supporters (24 per cent). Now, however, only 14 per cent of Leave voters take that view, even lower than the equivalent figure, 19 per cent, among those who backed Remain.
And a low level of trust and confidence is a hallmark of Remain voters. In last year’s election, just over a quarter (26 per cent) of those who think Britain’s system of government is in need of improvement voted Reform, compared with just 5 per cent of those who feel the system needs little or no improvement. The party’s name, ‘Reform UK’, encapsulates well the outlook of many of the party’s supporters.
Meanwhile, the rise of social media appears to have created something of a breeding ground for Reform support. Even though the party is backed predominantly by older voters, with those who primarily rely on social media to follow the news being predominantly young, support for the party was five points higher last year among social media users than it was among those reliant on other media for their political news. Nigel Farage’s TikTok posts are, perhaps, not just reaching out to younger voters after all.
In any event, the challenge posed by Reform to the future of the Conservative party is profound. Not only has it lost most of the pro-Brexit vote it won in 2019, but its grip on what has long been the core of its support – those on the right economically rather than culturally – is now under threat too. In our March survey, Reform (on 28 per cent) were only narrowly behind the Conservatives (31 per cent) among this group, something that Ukip never threatened to do. Command of the political right in Britain is up for grabs as never before.
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