Coronavirus has created two different cabinets: an inner cabinet involved in the key discussions about how to handle the pandemic and an outer cabinet. Last week’s meeting reinforced this point, when some in the outer cabinet were acutely aware that the real decision had been taken by the inner cabinet before the whole cabinet Zoomed in for their meeting.
The outer cabinet tends to be very keen on a significant easing of the lockdown. One minister’s assessment is that two-thirds of the total cabinet favour a substantial reduction in restrictions at the next review in a few weeks’ time.
As I say in the magazine, out tomorrow, Boris Johnson is at Chequers wrestling with the question of what to do. There are no good answers to the problem. Lift the lockdown too soon and you risk a revival of the virus that could overwhelm the NHS, despite all the extra capacity that has been added. But the longer these current restrictions remain in place, the greater the social and economic damage.
The view in Whitehall is that the most likely outcome of the next government review is a mild lifting of restrictions while the UK government watches very closely to see what that does to the R number (the number of people infected by each person with the virus) and what happens in other countries that have gone further in lifting their lockdowns.
This analysis first appeared in The Spectator’s Covid-19 update email. You can sign up to it here: https://www.spectator.co.uk/covid-19-updates
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