Master trainer Aidan O’Brien provides a quandary for punters by sending over two very different horses from Ireland to contest tomorrow’s Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes.
Little Big Bear is officially the highest rated horse in the race (Newmarket 4.40 p.m.) after four impressive wins last season but he has never raced over further than six and a half furlongs. He may well not stay the one-mile distance of tomorrow’s contest over Newmarket’s demanding straight course.
Auguste Rodin, on the other hand, is already tried and tested over a mile with two of his three wins last season coming over that trip, one on soft ground and the other on heavy. However, all the signs are that he will be better suited by a longer trip and he is already being talked about as the stable’s likely No. 1 for the Epsom Derby over a distance of one mile and a half next month.
The money has come for Auguste Rodin and if there is a wonder horse in the race tomorrow it is likely to be this well-bred three-year-old colt. Stable jockey Ryan Moore has also chosen Auguste Rodin over Little Big Bear.
These two horses are understandably at the head of the market but I am, as usual, going in search of bigger prices and greater value. ROYAL SCOTSMAN, trained by the father and son team of Paul and Oliver Cole, ended last season in fine form, running Chaldean to a fast-diminishing head in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket over seven furlongs.
He clearly handles the track and that Dewhurst run, coupled with his breeding, suggests he should get a mile. Paul Cole certainly knows how to get the best out of a decent horse having been responsible for training Derby-winner Generous more than three decades ago.
Cole Snr is convinced he has another exceptional horse in his yard in the shape of Royal Scotsman and the plan has always been to come to Newmarket without a prep run.
Cole Snr sounded bullish last week when he said: ‘The Chaldean form is strong. The handicappers have rated that Irish form higher and it’s a question which form is better. Personally, I don’t think it [the Irish form] is [better], but the race will determine who is right.
‘You hope and hope and hope, but we know we’ve got a fast horse and we know we’ve got a talented horse. You just keep your fingers crossed nothing goes wrong and he gets a good tow in the race, and then may the best horse wins.’
Royal Scotsman looks to be well drawn in stall 11, next to Auguste Rodin in berth 12, with Little Big Bear in 13. The English-trained colt also recorded fast times in his two best runs last season and he will be at home on the likely fast ground. Back him each way at 17-2 with William Hill paying four places.
There are plenty of other dangers in the field headed by Andrew Balding’s Chaldean, who unseated in his prep run for the Guineas at Newbury last month, and Roger Varian’s speedy colt Sakheer. Like Little Big Bear, Sakheer will have every chance of winning if seeing out the trip but he has not yet raced beyond six furlongs.
Perhaps the key statistic for the race is that you have to go back to 1999 to find a winner of the 2000 Guineas who did not run over at least seven furlongs as a two-year-old. Every year, trainers enter their best horses in this race in the hope they will stay a mile, only to bring them back in distance next time out when their stamina has been found wanting.
Both Sunday’s Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes and this weekend’s big handicaps are too difficult for me, particularly with so many runners making their seasonal debuts and their fitness therefore having to be taken on trust.
As promised last week, I have spent a lot of time studying the form of the tote Chester Cup, which will be run a week today. However, the two horses that I fancy need several potential rivals to come out in order to make the ‘cut’ for the race.
Given this and the importance of the draw at Chester even over marathon trips, I am going to wait and make my final selection, or selections, for the race a week today – on the morning of the race. There will also be extra places on offer by then too so there is no need to rush putting our money down.
2023 flat season running total: no results
Pending:
1 point each way Royal Scotsman at 17/2 for the 2000 Guineas, 1/5 odds, paying four places.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.1 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a one-point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either one-point each way or two-points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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