A new home for Old Labour

On the eve of last year’s general election result, many pundits predicted the demise of Britain’s two-party system. The likeliest outcome was another hung parliament in which one of the smaller parties — the Lib Dems or the SNP — held the balance of power. These same pundits pointed to the steady decline in membership of the two main parties, as well as the success of insurgent parties in the European and regional elections, as evidence of this sea change.

In the event, the pundits were ridiculed for getting it wrong. Yet is it possible they were just a year too early? The surprise Brexit win in yesterday’s EU referendum looks like it may bring about some kind of political realignment.

First, let’s deal with the impact of the Brexit victory on Labour which, it’s now clear, will be worse than on the Conservatives. More than half of Labour voters have turned out to be committed Eurosceptics. In Labour’s heartlands outside London, turnouts were at record highs – with Leave beating Remain 70:30 in areas like Stoke-on-Trent, Tristram Hunt’s constituency. But unlike their Tory counterparts, the Labour Outers had no one at the top of their party to speak for them. In addition, nearly every Labour MP campaigned for Stronger In during the referendum. When you bear in mind that the vast majority of Labour’s Eurosceptic voters are C2DEs, a demographic the party has been struggling to hang on to for the last 50 years, the consequences of this result could be disastrous – one reason Jeremy Corbyn is under pressure today, with the Parliamentary Labour Party likely to table a vote of no confidence next week.

Traditionally, the Labour Party has been an alliance between middle class liberals – the fruit-juice drinkers, nudists, sandal-wearers, sex-maniacs, Quakers, ‘Nature Cure’ quacks, pacifists and feminists identified by George Orwell in the Road to Wigan Pier – and working class traditionalists.