After Boris, who?

Even Boris Johnson’s longest-standing supporters now think he might be on the way out. His admission that he attended a Downing Street garden party when the rest of the country was living under strict Covid rules has proved the final straw for politicians ground down by months of negative headlines. MPs complain they’ve had enough, and don’t think he can recover. But there are two outstanding questions that are much harder to answer: when does he go? And who exactly should replace him?

Until now, ministers had been talking up the May local elections as the crunch point. If it was a disaster for the Conservatives then a confidence vote could be brought against Johnson, with a leadership contest to follow in the summer and the winner in place by the time of the party conference in Birmingham. But after Johnson’s admission, several MPs think they cannot wait so long for a new leader. The damage keeps accumulating.

The bulk of MPs are keen to hold on until Sue Gray publishes the finding of her inquiry into illicit Downing Street parties — which could still take weeks. Ahead of Johnson’s apology at Prime Minister’s Questions, government whips faced an uphill task convincing Tory MPs they should even turn up to hear it. ‘A lot of my colleagues are saying we shouldn’t wait until the local elections to move,’ says one whip. ‘And that we should instead change our leader now, in order to change the result of those elections.’

An end to Covid restrictions — which come up for renewal at the end of the month — could offer the Prime Minister an opportunity to depart with dignity. One former minister argues that Johnson should use the lifting of all restrictions in England as a way to say that he has led the nation through Brexit and Covid and it is someone else’s turn to rebuild the country.