Another day, another couple of Tory MPs calling on Boris Johnson to go — this time it is Jeremy Wright, the former attorney general, and Elliot Coburn, who was elected in 2019 and has a wafer-thin majority over the Liberal Democrats. The worry for No 10 is that this trickle of letters does not appear to be coordinated and seems to be just individual MPs making up their minds.
Having to fight a vote of no confidence would be a huge blow to the Prime Minister’s authority.
The steady, if not spectacular, flow of letters since the Gray report was published indicates that it isn’t the end of the matter that No. 10 hoped it would be. Most Tory MPs just want this story to go away, but even since the Gray report came out there have been claims about more events.
Parliament is currently in recess until next Monday and it is unlikely that the 54 letters will be hit while parliament is not sitting; one also doubts that the country would thank the Tory party for triggering a no confidence vote in the Prime Minister while the country is trying to celebrate the Queen’s platinum jubilee. But the prospect of the 54 letters being hit at some point is increasing. When you consider how many Tory MPs have gone public with their calls for Johnson to go, it seems likely that, for example, defeats in the two upcoming by-elections could see the threshold reached.
Johnson allies remain confident that he would win a no confidence ballot — they point to how little agreement there is over who should succeed him as one of the reasons for this. But having to fight such a vote would be a huge blow to the Prime Minister’s authority: Theresa May won hers with over 60 per cent of the vote and was still forced out six months later.
There have been times in recent months when Westminster has been abuzz with speculation that the 54 letters was about to be reached, only for nothing to happen. You’ll find a fair few Tory MPs who’ll predict that the same thing will happen again. But this time round, far more Tory MPs have gone public with their discontent. Johnson is fast approaching his moment of maximum vulnerability.
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