When the Sue Gray report was published on Wednesday, the most noticeable response was the silence among many Tory MPs. While a handful of Tories came out to criticise the Prime Minister and several came out to back Boris Johnson, the majority kept their powder dry. Since then, there hasn’t been a mass backlash against Johnson. But there has been a steady trickle of Conservative MPs coming out to say Johnson should go (the full list is here).
Since Wednesday, MPs Julian Sturdy, Stephen Hammond and Bob Neill are among those to submit letters. Meanwhile, 2019 MPs Angela Richardson, Alicia Kearns and Paul Holmes – who resigned as a PPS this week – have expressed their dismay at the situation. There has also been a small revolt on the right over Johnson and Rishi Sunak’s economic plans which include a windfall tax.
As MPs return to their constituencies for recess, they will have plenty of time to hear what their voters make of the situation. One government figure says the party could stumble into a confidence vote – pointing to the fact there is currently little co-ordination but letters are being sent from different factions of the party. They add that Johnson would likely win such a vote if held now.
As MPs return to their constituencies for recess, they will have plenty of time to hear what their voters make of the situation
An MRP poll for YouGov paints a bleak picture. Using the same model which predicted the outcome of the general election, it finds that the Tories would lose all but three of the 88 battlegrounds where they hold slim majorities over Labour were an election held tomorrow. As well as heavy losses in the red wall, Boris Johnson is projected to lose his own seat.
Recent polls are one of the reasons that CCHQ’s new ‘80/20’ strategy has been met with scepticism in parts of government. In Friday’s SpAd meeting in No. 10, aides were told of plans by Oliver Dowden’s team to retain the party’s 80 most marginal seats and target the 20 next winnable ones too. Government aides in that meeting were told once again that a 2023 election could not be ruled out (though most MPs still believe it will be 2024). The idea that the Tories are in a position to win many new seats was questioned privately by some after the meeting.
So, where does this all leave Boris Johnson? One senior Tory believes the resignation of Holmes is the most significant development in recent days: ‘He had bad local election results so the electoral reality hit him. This is something that is going to hit a lot more people over the next year with the by-elections and locals next year.’
It’s this that is perhaps Johnson’s biggest problem – not any specific detail in the Gray report or even the outcome of the privileges committee. It’s the electoral reality facing the Conservative party. No. 10 has focused in recent months on shoring up Johnson’s position with MPs – but the MPs sticking with him are doing so because they still think he is their best chance at winning the next election. Johnson will need to start showing how.
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