Those in the lookout for good Covid news will found precious little of it in Boris Johnson’s latest Covid press conference. Although the Prime Minister had cause for optimism in the form of the vaccine rollout – over 5.4 million people have now received their first dose of the vaccine, one in ten adults, – the overall message was of difficult times ahead.
Johnson said there was evidence to suggest that the ‘Kent variant’ not only spreads faster but is deadly. The PM pointed to data assessed by scientists on the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group which, he said, suggested the variant could be up to 30 per cent more deadly than the original.
Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance urged caution, warning that the evidence on lethality ‘is not yet strong’. There was no increase in mortality for hospitalised Covid cases, he said, but the higher risk seemed to be amongst the population at large. Only after the press conference was the Nervtag paper released, cautious in its conclusion. It said only that “there is a realistic possibility” that the new variant “is associated with an increased risk of death.” Notably, Public Health England have since said that they cannot say with certainty that the new variant causes a higher death rate.
More reassuringly, Johnson said that the vaccines approved in the UK are still expected to be as effective against the new strain as the former one. They are less convinced, however, on the effectiveness of the vaccines against the South African and Brazilian variants.
Pressed on what the government planned to do about this, Johnson said there may be a need ‘to go further to protect our borders’. This comes ahead of a meeting next week where ministers will discuss options to bring in stricter protocols with its border policy, including the possibility of enforced hotel quarantine.
On the question of when restrictions could be eased, Johnson warned of a long road ahead. But he also said the government would still review restrictions mid-February even though few in government believe there will be a relaxation at this point.
Johnson stressed the need to get cases down and Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty suggested the peak of deaths could still be in the future. With the panel agreeing that Covid will be with us potentially forever, the suggestion was that the path back to normality is narrowing.
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