By May, the acute phase of the Covid crisis should be over. But the elections scheduled for that month threaten to throw the government into a fresh crisis.
Nicola Sturgeon looks set to lead the Scottish National Party to a majority in the Holyrood elections. Given that the SNP manifesto will commit the party to a second independence referendum, she will claim this victory as a mandate for holding one. But no legal referendum can take place without Westminster’s consent, which will be refused.
As Covid recedes into the distance, a fresh justification will be needed for saying no
But, as I argue in the Times today, the danger is that a two-letter answer with no further explanation could be seen as typical Tory, or English, arrogance. ‘If Nicola gets a majority at the election, Boris can’t just say no. He has to say “no, because” and that reason has to be deep’, one influential Scottish Tory tells me.
The first reason is obvious: Covid. At a time when Britain is recovering from the pandemic, it would be wrong to distract politicians and government machines on both sides of the border with a referendum. Crucially, polling suggests this logic is accepted by undecided voters.
As Covid recedes into the distance, though, a fresh justification will be needed for saying no. There’s the old favourite: promise more powers to Holyrood and hope that this will buy off demands for independence. But one secretary of state warns that ‘going down the “here are a few more powers, now shut up” route isn’t sensible’.
One idea gaining traction in Whitehall is taking the Tories’ manifesto commitment to a ‘Constitution, Democracy and Rights Commission’ and turning it into a Royal Commission on where powers should rest after Brexit and after Covid. I understand Johnson is sympathetic to this idea.
One of the attractions of this proposal is that it would extend the debate beyond Scotland. I am told that when it comes to the scope of the inquiry, ‘nobody thinks it should be just Scotland’.
A Royal Commission would take time, something which the Union needs right now as the post-Brexit arrangements bed in. But ministers must use what time they have to demonstrate the benefits of the Union, to make the structures of government fit for purpose and to convince Scots of their merits.
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