The headlines figures in today’s YouGov poll are disastrous for Brown, the historical comparisons are humiliating—even under Michael Foot the Labour party never sank this low in the polls, but what should really worry Brown about this poll is that he and Labour now trail Cameron and the Tories on every question.
Downing Street has been spinning the line that the recent election results have been so bad for Labour as they have been referendums on the government. The thinking goes that things will improve for Labour at the general election as it will be a choice between Labour and the Tories. This new poll, though, offers no evidence for this theory. Indeed, on a forced choice between a Labour government under Brown and a Tory one led by Cameron, Tory support rises to 54 percent. The Tories have a 17 point lead on economic competence and Cameron a 22 point advantage on who would be the best PM. In these circumstances, framing the election as a choice between a Labour government and a Conservative one will do little, if anything, to improve Labour’s standing.
Jittery Labour MPs will want to pay particular attention to the news that only 8 percent of voters—and 14 percent of Labour supporters—think that it would harm Labour’s chances at the next election if they got rid of Brown while 32 percent—and 40 percent of Labour ones—say it would improve them. Brown’s personal rating is now minus 60 which is the worst ever recorded for any Prime Minister. As Anthony Wells notes, even at the nadir of his fortunes John Major was just above this mark. To adapt the song, thing keep getting worse for Brown.
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