The dominant issue in UK/EU relations in the coming months is going to be Northern Ireland. The UK is trying to ‘sandpaper’ down the protocol to lessen its impact on the ground in Northern Ireland. But the EU is resisting, pointing out that the UK signed up to the deal in the first place.
In an interview in this week’s Spectator David Frost admits that ‘The problem we’ve got is that the boundary for trade purposes is proving more of a deterrent to trade and more of a generation of trade diversion than many people expected.’
Frost’s deliberate use of the phrase ‘diversion’ is significant. Why, because trade diversion is one of the things that allows for the use of Article 16, which enables one side to unilaterally set aside the protocol.
The UK invoking Article 16 would be a dramatic moment, and it is hard to imagine that the EU would not respond with counter-measures of its own. Such an escalation of the dispute would quickly begin to infect the whole UK/EU relationship.
UK/EU relations are scratchy at the moment – just look at the whole Jersey fishing issue. But the two sides have a responsibility to try and address Unionist unease over the protocol as it is clearly a problem that a plurality of people in Northern Ireland – 48 per cent – want it scrapped. There are steps that can be taken which would ease some of the issues. For example, a trusted trade scheme would help massively with the supermarkets issue.
The case for the EU offering ground, despite the UK having signed the protocol in the first place, is that ultimately, a protocol that is deeply resented by Unionists will be much harder to sustain in the long term.
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