The White House reportedly expects that a trade deal between the United States and the UK could be signed within the next few weeks. This should be a big deal, at least for the small island if not for the world’s biggest economy. There could be a grand signing ceremony at Buckingham Palace. Or at a state visit to parliament by President Donald Trump. Or, if nothing else, perhaps Paddington Bear could put in an appearance to boost marmalade exports. But there is just one catch. It will have to be sold to the public and business alike – and that will be very hard for the bitterly anti-Trump Starmer government.
The final form of this supposed trade deal with the US has yet to be revealed. At the very least, it should include a suspension of the blanket 10 per cent tariffs President Trump imposed on everything the US imports. It may well include extra market access for British exports of professional and financial services and perhaps, most critically, for pharmaceuticals manufactured in the UK. We will find out when it is finally unveiled.
The trouble is, it is going to be very hard for the Starmer government to sell that convincingly. Its senior officials are so suspicious of their counterparts in the White House that they routinely hide documents from them, according to the Guardian. Against that backdrop, there is very little evidence of much goodwill between the two sides.
Many of the senior figures in the Labour government have been so consistently antagonistic towards Donald Trump and his main allies that it is very hard to see how they can suddenly start claiming that negotiating a deal with him is a great triumph. Most of them would probably feel a lot more comfortable organising a boycott.
Finally, and perhaps most significantly, the party’s backbenchers and supporters will be horrified by any concessions, no matter how minor. Chlorinated chicken, even though it is perfectly safe, seems to trigger hysterical reactions on the British left, and so does any hint of a more open market in pharmaceuticals or healthcare, or lower taxes for the tech giants. The US is almost certainly going to get something out of the deal, but it is hard to imagine there are any concessions to American capitalism that won’t create howls of protests among Labour’s members and supporters.
A trade deal only works if it boosts trade and confidence. It should galvanise businesses into higher levels of investment and persuade them to put more money and effort into increasing their exports. It needs some spin. But it will be very hard for this government to spin its American trade deal to anyone at all – and that means that, apart from lifting a few tariffs, it won’t make much difference to anything.
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