The broad narrative of the Republican primaries has essentially been “the search
for an alternative to Mitt Romney”. And that search looks set to continue with another potential candidate, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, set against running for president.
Romney has been the favourite to win the nomination pretty much since the 2008 election. But he does not generate much enthusiasm among the Republican base: only 14 per cent of Republicans have a “strongly favourable” view of him (according to Gallup) and he’s polling at just 24 per cent: pretty low for such a well-known frontrunner.
As a result, many in the Grand Old Party have been looking elsewhere. This has involved brief flirtations with some of the more right-wing candidates: Michele Bachmann in July and Rick Perry in August. Now Herman Cain is, as Sarah Palin put it, the latest “flavour of the week”.
The GOP has also twisted the arms of other potential candidates, but was frustrated by the likes of Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour and Paul Ryan — all of whom have declined. Speculation built during the run up to the anniversary of 9/11 that Rudy Giuliani might declare; but that’s now died away. Just last week, Reuters reported that conservative activists have implored Mike Huckabee to run, despite having ruled himself out back in May.
Recently, hopes have settled on Chris Christie. He has been mooted as a possible presidential candidate ever since his election as Governor in 2009, but has consistently denied a run. Last November, he even said:
‘Short of suicide, I don’t really know what I’d have to do to convince you people that I’m not running. I’m not running! I’ve said I don’t want to. I’m not going to. There is zero chance I will. I don’t feel like I’m ready to be president. I don’t want to run for president.’
But hopes haven’t faded; in fact, they increased after his widely-praised speech at the Reagan Library last week. Only now do the press seem ready to believe Christie’s denials. Ahead of a press conference tonight, he’s making it clear that he’s staying out of the race for real.
The argument for Christie was that he’s relatively moderate — and therefore electable — while still able to appeal to the conservative Republican base. As Fivethirtyeight‘s Nate Silver said after his speech last week:
‘Christie is a very good salesman. He basically gave a Jon Huntsman stump speech and the base ate it up.’
But, as Silver has pointed out, getting into the race this late would have proved a big challenge for any candidate. He would have to move very quickly to raise money and organise, particularly in the early states. His chances of victory would likely have relied on doing well enough in Iowa to beat Romney in New Hampshire, but Romney is very strong there and already has a good deal of campaign infrastructure in the state. Beating him in New Hampshire would probably require more muscle than Christie could build in three months.
Had his decision been different, Christie would certainly have a big impact on the race. A Washington Post-ABC News poll released yesterday has him on 11 per cent, which would put him in fourth place. My suspicion is that, as a relatively moderate candidate, he would’ve hurt Romney the most, sucking up many of the voters who are looking for the most electable candidate and breaking his grip on the North East. So perhaps the Romney camp will be breathing a big sigh of relief this evening.
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