Rem Korteweg

Don’t panic! Turkey won’t be joining the EU anytime soon

The Leave campaign sees the EU-Turkey accession talks as a reason to drum up fears about migration. In fact, it is a red herring. True, David Cameron may have previously been one of the most vocal champions for Turkish EU membership, even if during the referendum campaign he said that Turkey will not join ‘until the year 3000’. But despite his apparent contradiction, he is right about one thing: Turkish membership is a long way off.

So what do the accession talks look like as they stand? They are made up of 35 chapters in all but so far only one chapter – on science and research co-operation – has been successfully negotiated. Fourteen chapters are effectively off limits due to vetoes by Cyprus and others. Sixteen chapters have been opened, including one as part of the recently agreed refugee deal between Ankara and Brussels. But Turkey’s progress on aligning its legislation with the EU has been snail-paced.

Besides, many EU countries oppose Turkey joining the EU. Cyprus is perhaps most obviously against Turkish membership and the Cyprus issue remains perhaps the thorniest obstacle. Though relations are improving between the two groups on the divided island, an agreement between Greek and Turkish Cypriots remains elusive. Until then Cyprus will block any meaningful progress in the accession talks. Elsewhere, France, the Netherlands and others are deeply sceptical too. The French government has repeatedly hinted at holding a referendum on the issue, which would almost certainly be won by the ‘Non’ camp. Dutch voters rejected the EU’s association agreement with Ukraine in April 2016 because of concerns that it would advance Ukrainian EU membership, amongst other things. The Dutch are similarly unsympathetic towards Turkish membership and would block it in a referendum. Germany has been critical too, and the mood has not improved after the Bundestag recognised the Armenian genocide on June 2nd.

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