Imagine you are a keen Brexiteer and opponent of net zero plans, especially of the idea of being forced to buy an electric vehicle (EV). There are plenty of people like you; there is much evidence to suggest that the two things go together. But you must now be feeling a little confused. It must be dawning on you that, in terms of your freedom to buy the vehicle that you want, you would have been better off had Britain remained in the EU. Europe has just made the decision to relax the ban on petrol vehicles from 2035 to 2040 – while in Britain it is still planned to take effect from 2030.
It is not hard to see why the EU has changed its mind. For one thing, the market for EVs has not just stalled; it has started to roll backwards. According to the European Environment Agency, pure electric cars made up 21.6 per cent of the market in 2022, rising slightly to 22.5 per cent in 2023 but then falling back to 20.9 per cent last year. And this is in spite of numerous incentives.
Even so, someone is doing well out of Europe’s market for electric vehicles. Sales of Chinese EVs during the period from January to September were 77 per cent higher than in the same period in 2024. Thanks to that, in September, Chinese manufacturers accounted for a record 8 per cent of the entire European car market. And this is in spite of punitive tariffs of up to 35 per cent on Chinese cars introduced a year ago.
The EU is nothing if not imaginative in its protectionism
China is on the way towards almost complete capture of the market for EVs. Its car industry started earlier, and it is using superior battery technology – the manufacturer CATL recently unveiled a battery which it claims can run 320 miles and be charged in as little as five minutes. Such a breakthrough would negate fears over range and do away with much of the reluctance on the part of European motorists to buy the vehicles. China also has a huge advantage on cost. Even if you buy a European-made EV the chances are that you are being powered by a Chinese-made battery. Europe’s own efforts to develop an EV battery industry have faltered, with the collapse of Swedish producer Northvolt earlier this year.
The EU has found itself with an awkward choice: it can either stick with its target of decarbonising road transport – or it can try to cling on to its car industry. It seems to be very much minded to do the latter. Besides the relaxation of the ban on petrol vehicles the EU is also pushing forward with a plan for ‘local sourcing’ of components – and is now proposing a new class of small, light (and European-made) cars which will enjoy having city centre parking places reserved for them. The EU is nothing if not imaginative in its protectionism. It might help the European car industry limp along for a bit, but it isn’t going to help European motorists, who will find their cars costing more than they need to.
Above all else, the case of EVs shows up European net zero targets for the destructive mechanisms that they are. China has grown its EV industry without having a European-style legally-binding net zero target. All it has had is an aspiration to get to net zero emissions, which is more there for show and which, the government has made quite clear, will not be pursued at the expense of economic growth.
China invests in renewable energy but also heavily in coal plants to provide ample and cheap energy. As a result, the country has been able to develop EVs which motorists actually want to buy, not have forced upon them (although it also means that Chinese-made EVs are not nearly as clean as might be assumed, given that a large proportion of a car’s lifetime emissions come in the manufacturing stage). Europe, by contrast, has tried to legislate its way to clean energy while maintaining a Panglossian belief that its heavy-handed targets will somehow enrich everyone. As the EU is forced to retreat on net zero targets, it is pretty clear who is winning.
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