It’s groundhog day up in Scotland as once more the SNP have found a reason to suggest why their desperately-needed, long-overdue second independence referendum… might have to be delayed again. For, despite a pliant press, a captive state and 15 years in power, the tartan nationalists are still unable to breach the magic figure of 50 per cent support for independence.
Having demanded a second referendum barely after the dust had settled on the first one, the SNP don’t seem so keen on holding it, given the lack of any sizeable shift in their favour. In light of Ian Blackford’s latest intervention, below are just five reasons given by the SNP since 2014 on why they have not yet held their long-awaited second referendum.
Brexit
The verdict of the EU referendum on 23 June 2016 seemed, at first, a godsend to Nicola Sturgeon whose government began planning for another plebiscite the day the results were announced. But three-and-a-half years later, when the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, no referendum had been held or even scheduled. Throughout the long, laborious process of negotiations, elections and various political shenanigans, Sturgeon found reasons to keep moving the goalposts.
After the 2017 election result saw the SNP go backwards in its vote share, the First Minister announced that the Scottish Government would postpone legislation on the proposed second referendum on Scottish independence until at least autumn 2018 as part of a ‘reset’ when it was believed that the outcome of Brexit negotiations would become clearer. At the following election in 2019, the Brexit issue forced Sturgeon to drop talk of a second independence vote until after polling day.
Covid
Just as Brexit was completed, Covid came to save Sturgeon once more from setting out a firm referendum polling date. Mike Russell, the-then constitution secretary, wrote to Michael Gove to admit the delay in March 2020, writing that: ‘Because of the crisis, the Scottish government has paused work on preparing for an independence referendum this year.’
Sturgeon was happy to go along with that line until it came to the run-up to the Holyrood elections and a restless activist base became more of a threat once more. She campaigned for indyref2 in spring 2021 – only to turn around midway through and say the pandemic might delay it until 2024 to keep her Scottish Labour waverers happy.
Covid restrictions
In September 2021, Covid rates were in decline thanks to the successful UK-wide vaccination programme. Would now be the moment Nicola called her long-awaited vote? Don’t bet on it: seven years on from the first indyref, Sturgeon began her party conference by telling Sky News that a new independence referendum would not be held until all restrictions on daily life in Scotland were lifted.
Sturgeon said that if a campaign was to be given the proper focus, it was ‘crucial’ that there was ‘an overall environment in the country where people are not in their day-to-day lives being asked to limit or restrict their behaviour’. Note this was a subtle difference from her previous position of simply delaying because of the ‘Covid crisis’ and indeed her subsequent reasoning about the ‘Covid recovery’; this excuse was to do with masks and social distancing, rather than spiralling death rates or economic factors.
Covid variants and recovery
Six months after the Scottish elections and, with no signs of the polls shifting, Sturgeon went on the Andrew Marr Show to suggest that the latest coronavirus variant could cause a further delay in holding a second independence referendum. The First Minister claimed in November 2021 that Omicron could change the situation, adding that ‘as long as necessary, steering and leading Scotland through this pandemic is my focus and my priority.’
She added: ‘my primary duty right now is to lead the country through this pandemic, and hopefully soon, out of the other end of it’, opening the door to the post-Covid recovery being another reason for the SNP to delay their plebiscite. With Covid cases once more on the rise in March 2022, will that serve as sufficient cover for Sturgeon delaying the vote again?
Ukraine
The intervention this weekend by Ian Blackford was merely the latest in a long line of reasons why the SNP have not yet held a second independence referendum. According to the party’s Westminster leader, a plebiscite cannot be held because the party’s ‘focus is on Ukraine’ – even though, er, neither Holyrood nor the SNP having any role in British foreign policy. Despite this, Blackford insists another vote should ‘take place in a timely manner’. Here’s hoping that’s the same ‘timeline’ that has seen no progress being made on a second referendum in eight years…
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