As a keen follower of most sports, I like it when the ‘good guys’ do well. By the ‘good guys’, I mean the elite sportsmen (and women) who are humble about their achievements and who you feel you could enjoy a couple of pints with at the bar of your local pub.
In racing, I would be pretty sure that trainer Owen Burrows falls into this good-guy category. I have never met him but contacts of mine who know him well like him a great deal. He is knowledgeable, charming, straightforward and modest when interviewed on television too.
More importantly from the point of view of a punter, Burrows is an exceptionally talented trainer. He has an incredible 20 per cent strike rate from all his runners from the past five years – that’s because 93 of his 467 runners during that time have won.
That impressive strike rate, which even includes a tiny profit for backing every one of his runners to the same stake, comes despite the fact that the Lambourn handler is not afraid to aim his best horses at the biggest prizes, including the Classics and other Group 1s.
I am pretty sure Burrows is going to land a big pot sooner rather than later this season and I hope it will be with ALYANAABI in the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot on 18 June.
He finished fifth on his seasonal debut in the Qipco 2000 Guineas last month and will almost certainly have to reoppose one or more of the horses that beat him at Newmarket. However, he took a keen hold that day, raced on what was probably the less favoured side of the straight mile and he will come on for the run too. As many racing experts have already noted, the 2000 Guineas form looks rock solid too.
All in all, 2000s Guineas winner Notable Speech is going to be hard to beat in the St James’s Palace but I am very happy to back Alyanaabi each way at 16-1 with either SkyBet or BetVictor, both paying three places. Odds of more than 3-1 for a place are generous and it is not impossible that the horse could win the race.
I have been taking a close look at most of the big Royal Ascot non-handicaps and another horse that I am sweet on is JASOUR in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup on June 21.
Clive Cox’s three-year-old grey colt showed plenty of speed when, after a hold-up ride from Jim Crowley, he came from last to first to win the Group 3 Commonwealth Cup Trial Stakes. That race, too, showed that he can handle some cut in the ground as it was officially ‘good to soft’ at Ascot on May 1. The form of that contest has held up well too.
Jasour would not want to race in a bog – hopefully unlikely in late June – but anything from ‘good to soft’ to ‘good to firm’ will be fine. Vandeek and River Tiber head a long list of dangers, as well as Inisherin if, as expected, he is supplement for the race by Kevin Ryan and the owners.
However, back Jasour each way at 11-1 with Sky Bet in the hope he gets another fast-run race over six furlongs at Ascot and picks up his rivals one by one. He will face stiffer competition later this month than he did in early May but this horse looks a real improver for a yard that loves to have a Royal Ascot winner.
Ever since ISLE OF JURA went to Bahrain for our winter and won four of his five starts, Newmarket trainer George Scott has been hoping to aim his stable star at Royal Ascot’s Group 2 Hardwicke Sakes on 22 June. The handler cannot hide his admiration for this beautifully-bred, 17-hands-plus gelding, saying of him he’s ‘certainly the most exciting horse we’ve had for some time’.
The intention to target the Hardwicke was confirmed late last month when the four-year-old gelding cosily won the William Hill Festival Stakes at Goodwood over a mile and a quarter, thereby completing a four timer.
The Hardwicke is over a trip of two furlongs further and there are a few horses in the race who will have higher official ratings but a fast run race over a mile and a half should be just what Isle of Jura needs.
Scott is a young trainer deservedly making a name for himself and a Royal Ascot winner would be sweet compensation for the horse’s regular jockey Callum Shepherd, after being unceremoniously ‘jocked off’ Ambiente Friendly in last weekend’s Betfred Derby.
Back Isle of Jura each way with at 12-1, the price offered by most bookies, all of them offering three places. There are currently 28 runners entered in this race, which will have a maximum of 19 starters. However, this race often cuts up and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the field reduced to single figures in which case 12-1 could look a nice price on the day.
One word of warning, however: Isle of Jura needs fast ground to be at his best so he is unlikely to win, or even run, if the rain arrives in huge quantities ahead of the race.
I have saved the best until last. At this stage, I consider my top ante-post bet for Royal Ascot to be SHARTASH in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes on June 22. This four-year old was gelded early this year and since then he has been a revelation for his new trainer, Archie Watson, winning both his two runs.
I love the fact, too, that he goes on all ground: it was ‘soft’ when he destroyed a decent field in a conditions race at Thirsk in April and it was ‘good to firm’ when he won a listed race at Haydock in May. Not being ground dependent is perfect for an ante-post bet.
After the horse’s latest run, Watson said: ‘Gelding him has been the key, I’ve never known more of a transformation with a horse for it.’ Don’t forget, too, this is the trainer who had an incredible three winners at Royal Ascot last year, including two in the sprints.
An official rating of 111 gives Shartash a few pounds to find with some of his likely rivals such as Kinross but, make no mistake, this horse is improving leaps and bounds with every run.
Shartash was available at 14-1 until early on Wednesday morning but then Pricewise, the Racing Post’s first-rate tipster, put him up so that blew away those odds. However, Shartash is still 10-1, three places, with Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral and Ladbrokes. With so much in his favour, I am still happy to put him up as an excellent each way bet for a race that is definitely his target despite his last two wins being over seven furlongs, not the six furlongs of this Royal Ascot race.
I have a couple of other strong fancies for big races at the royal meeting but they, like Isle of Jura, need fast ground in order to excel so, just in case our summer suddenly becomes as wet as our winter, I will keep my powder dry with these until nearer the day. I will also be looking closely at the handicaps once the entries for all the races are published.
As for tomorrow’s fare, I am going to put up just one bet and that is in the Betfred John of Gaunt Stakes (Haydock, 3.35pm). POPMASTER is tough, admirable and consistent over distance of either six or seven furlongs.
The six-year-old grey gelding improved throughout last season and then ran a fair race last time out when seventh, beaten just over two lengths, behind Wizard of Eye in the Lavazza & Ascot 10 Year Anniversary Victoria Cup, despite having a slightly troubled passage.
He steps up to Group 2 tomorrow in a strong 12-runner field but I just feel 20-1 is too big now that he is rated 108 and has the benefit of Saffie Osborne in the saddle. Back him each way at 20-1 with bet365, William Hill, BetVictor or Betfred, all paying four places.
Pending:
1 point each way Popmaster at 20-1 in the John of Gaunt Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Alyanaabi at 16-1 in the St James’s Palace Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Jasour at 11-1 in the Commonwealth Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Isle of Jura at 12-1 in the Hardwicke Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Shartash at 10-1 in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
Last weekend: + 5.3 points.
1 point each way Secret Satire at 12-1 in the Oaks, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Breege at 15-2 in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 1st. + 9 points.
1 point each way Ambiente Friendly at 13-2 in the Derby, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. 2nd. + 0.3 points.
1 point each way Ghostwriter at 16-1 in the Prix du Jockey Club, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 4th. – 2 points.
2024 flat season running total + 11.1 points.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 15 of the past 17 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 517 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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