As I wrote a couple of days ago, Brown’s close involvement in the Glenrothes by-election is a high risk strategy – after all, he’ll be regarded as even more reponsible should Labour be defeated. But the strategy may just have bought him more time in his role. Recently, the story was that the leadership challenges would kick off at the Labour conference in September. But the latest – as reported in today’s Times – is that Labour MPs are prepared to sheath their knives until after the by-election, which will most likely be in October or November. The thinking is that Brown should be given an opportunity to prove himself, and to implement his economic recovery package.
Two thoughts:
1) If the story’s true, then Brown will probably need a political miracle to avoid a leadership challenge in November. At the moment, the smart money’s on the SNP winning in Glenrothes. And a couple of months is hardly enough time judge the effects of a policy package on the economy. Of course, Team Brown will be hoping more that the economic recovery plan has an immediate effect on the voting intentions of the public – but this morning’s YouGov/Telegraph poll seems to deny that.
And 2) Of course, a political miracle won’t be necessary if the party decides to give Brown yet another chance to prove himself, even after a possible defeat in Glenrothes. The fact is that Glasgow East was – on paper – a safer seat for Labour than Glenrothes is. If they’re going to use by-elections as a litmus test of Brown’s premiership, then they’ve already seen one of the most damning results possible. But Brown remains.
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