Has Labour done enough?

Is Labour on course to be the largest party at the next election but miss out on a majority? Despite recent opinion polls suggesting Keir Starmer’s party is on course for a huge majority, this is the projection this evening from the respected Sky election analyst Michael Thrasher. Using the latest figures from the local elections, Sky News has projected that Labour is on course to be the largest party in parliament – but to fall short of a Commons majority by 32 seats. The findings come as BBC News puts its projected national share as Labour on 34 per cent – nine points up on the Tories, but one point down on its estimated share in the last two sets of elections.

So, does this suggest Labour has had a more disappointing night than first thought? The Thrasher model assumed that the changes seen in vote share occur uniformly across each of the newly drawn parliamentary constituencies in place for the next general election. It’s clear the Tories have had a bad night – the national share estimate shows they are on 26 per cent of the vote, which is a 19-point fall from where they were in 2019. However, the question is whether Labour has done enough to be on a path of majority. It’s worth noting that Labour need a bigger swing than Tony Blair to secure a majority of one.

Now the line from Labour this evening is the most important thing is where they are winning. They argue their wins overlap with key battlegrounds that the party would need to come out on top in to win a majority such as Nuneaton, Thurrock and Redditch. So the argument goes that the Labour vote under Starmer is more efficient than under previous Labour leaders. What’s more, the Thrasher poll relies on the voting intention in Scotland remaining unchanged – when Labour are hoping for a big Scottish recovery in the face of SNP chaos.

Now the results are far from over: there are several key counts tomorrow such as the West Midlands mayor and the London mayor. Labour sources are briefing that Andy Street could be re-elected due to Muslim voters turning away from Labour over Israel/Palestine. It’s clearly been a very difficult time so far for the Tories and many Tory MPs are keeping their powder dry for now. But if this comes to pass (or if Sadiq Khan underperforms polling) the initial narrative of Labour wins at the expense of the Tories will be questioned.