So, how bad is the North Shropshire by-election result? All across the country, that is the question which Tory members, both in Parliament and out are now asking themselves. Winner Helen Morgan took the seat by nearly 6,000 votes, overturning a Conservative majority of almost 23,000 on a 34 per cent swing. Turnout was 46.3 per cent. The seat voted Leave in 2016 by 60 per cent and had been held by the party since 1832, with the exception of a few years during the Edwardian period.
The seat had a 40.6 per cent Conservative majority in 2019 – the equivalent of Labour losing Leeds Central, Cardiff Central, or Islington South, home to Hilary Benn, Jo Stevens and Emily Thornberry respectively. And, while this change in vote share would never be repeated across the country at a general election, it’s fun to imagine – as some commentators are – a Parliament with 505 Lib Dems, 79 Labour MPs and just five Tories. This would leave Alex Burghart, Amanda Milling, Sir John Hayes, Rebecca Harris and Matt Warman to thrash it out for their party’s leadership. At least Christmas party photos might be less likely to leak.
The loss of the 76th safest Conservative seat in the country has set alarm bells ringing throughout the party. In a list of the eight worst Tory by-election performances since World War Two pollster Peter Kellner claims this was the second worst ever with a 31.1 per cent drop in the Conservative vote share – bested only by Christchurch which saw a 32.1 per cent drop in 1993. That contest was in the dark days of the Major government, an administration beset by sleaze, scandal and troubles with Europe. Fortunately Boris Johnson had a ring side seat on all that as the Daily Telegraph’s chief political commentator so not like he’d ever make the same mistakes…
North Shropshire is therefore worse than both the infamous 1962 Orpington contest, which saw a 26.8 per cent drop, and far worse than the 18.9 per cent fall for Eastbourne in 1990. Both of these contests are noteworthy for seriously wounding previously unassailable Tory premiers: Harold Macmillan – whose defeat at the hands of the ‘Orpingtonians’ signalled his party had lost touch with the ‘never had it so’ middle classes – and Margaret Thatcher, whose critics moved on her in the aftermath, fearing the loss of their own seats. Good luck Boris. On all three occasions the Tory association offended local sensibilities by picking someone from outside the area, thinking that they’d be in the safe seat for years to come. Sadly, on each occasion, the electorate let them down.
Historically when the Tories lose a by-election by such a big margin, they tend to lose the next election. Of the aforementioned list of the party’s worst contests since the war, the only exception to this rule was Torrington in 1958, held two months after Macmillan’s entire Treasury team resigned. But the canny Old Etonian actor-manager was able to work his magic and nineteen months later was returned to Downing Street with a thumping majority, despite a litany of past slip-ups.
Will Johnson be able to do the same?
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