The Conservative party has undergone significant change in the past 24 hours. As a Brexit showdown looms – and reports of an imminent early election rise – a number of Conservative MPs have announced they will not be seeking re-election. Justine Greening was the first to go today. Announcing her decision, she said her party had become the Brexit party and argued the Conservative party was ‘narrowing down its appeal’ to people across the country. Alastair Burt – the former Foreign Office minister – has also made clear he will not seek re-election. Keith Simpson is also stepping down. However, the MP for Broadland in Norfolk puts this down to reaching the ‘ripe old age’ of 70 rather than anything to do with Brexit. Philip Lee meanwhile has this afternoon defected to the Liberal Democrats.
Tonight the list of departing Tory MPs will grow with a number of Brexit rebels insisting they will go ahead with their threats and vote to legislate against a no deal Brexit. No. 10 has suggested they will ban any MPs who do so from standing at the next election. It follows that David Gauke, Antoinette Sandbach, Philip Hammond and Rory Stewart will likely be added to the list.
The direction the Conservatives are taking under Boris Johnson and his senior aide Dominic Cummings means that many of these MPs no longer view the Tory party as their home. Under Theresa May, there was a constant effort for Brexit compromise – her Cabinet was supposed to be made up of an equal number of Remain-ers and Brexiteers. The new government has no such intention – it is unashamedly pro-Brexit and delivering Brexit by the 31st October comes before anything else. This means that it benefits from clarity of message – the first few weeks of Johnson’s government have showed what that means in terms of positive communications. The party is also receiving a popularity boost according to recent polls. But a consequence of that is that there are some Tory MPs who no longer feel able to remain in the party.
In the event of an election, expect the Conservative parliamentary party that returns to look different. Retiring opponents of no deal are likely to be replaced by devoted advocates of it – as has happened in the case of Nick Boles’ successor. There’s a view in government that there is little point having an election only to return with a divided party which still cannot agree a plan on Brexit. After Brexit is delivered, there is a hope in government that the divisions will heal. However, until then, the priority is reuniting the Brexit vote – not keeping MPs like Justine Greening on side.
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