Humza Yousaf’s government is adrift, of that there can be no doubt. The question is how much longer the drift will be allowed to continue before the SNP leader corrects course. In the four months since he replaced Nicola Sturgeon, Yousaf has staggered from one catastrophe to another.
The First Minister has seen his predecessor and other senior figures arrested (and released without charge) by police investigating the SNP’s financial affairs. His government’s flagship deposit return scheme has imploded after failing to gain the support of business and Westminster. He has been forced to U-turn on plans to ban fishing in 10 per cent of Scottish waters. A scandal-wracked ferry-building project, which has failed to complete a single vessel in eight years, has recorded another rise in costs. One of his MPs now sits as an independent while a further eight — almost one-fifth of the SNP Westminster group — have announced they are quitting at the next election.
Health is the First Minister’s weakest point
When a government is taking fire from every direction, it tends to become defensive and reactive in outlook. Getting through the week without a major debacle comes to be seen as a victory, when in fact it means that the government is standing still. There is not a single policy area in which the Scottish government is on the front foot. Making it to the four-month mark is no small feat given the circumstances, but beyond staying power Yousaf has nothing to show for it.
The country is a year or so out from a general election. Time is running out for Yousaf to define his leadership as something more than a rapid response operation to the latest bad headline. There are a number of steps open to him that could neutralise key lines of attack from the opposition and reorient the party back to the populist middle ground from which it has dominated Scottish politics for nearly two decades.
Ditch the Greens. The coalition deal with the Scottish Green party has given the Nationalists a majority in the Scottish parliament, but it has come at a steep price for the government’s political capital. The collapsed deposit return scheme? The Greens. The fishing ban? The Greens. The Gender Recognition Reform (GRR) Bill? The Greens. Breaking the promise to dual the A9? Done to appease…the Greens.
The pact between the two parties has also caused tensions on the SNP backbenches, with veteran Nationalist Fergus Ewing under threat of suspension for not backing an inept Green minister in a no-confidence vote. That an SNP leader feels more loyalty to Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater than Fergus Ewing tells you just how far this coalition has pulled the party — too far.
Drop the legal challenge over the GRR Bill. The GRR Bill, and the separate but contemporaneous issue of the transgender rapist Isla Bryson, played no small part in Nicola Sturgeon’s premature departure. When Scottish Secretary Alister Jack used his powers to block the Bill, he was inadvertently doing the SNP a favour, making an issue that divides the party and alienates its voters disappear from the political agenda. Foolishly, Yousaf decided to challenge Jack’s decision in court, in another sop to the Greens. Withdrawing this legal action would draw a line under the matter and send a signal that the Scottish government will no longer be distracted by identity politics.
Park independence. Sturgeon’s ill-advised decision to place the independence issue before the Supreme Court has knocked the cause clean off its feet. Everyone knows this, so why not be up-front about it? Do what Sturgeon ought to have done after taking over from Alex Salmond in 2014: accept that Scotland had rejected independence and commit to earning the voters’ trust through good governance before mounting a second attempt. That message will anger some but independence supporters who are in it for the long haul will be open to the argument that it is in the strategic interests of the cause to focus energies elsewhere for a time.
Lean in to devolution. Parking independence does not mean giving up on constitutional politics. The SNP can still pursue gradual independence by campaigning for more powers to be devolved to Holyrood. In this project, they will have an ally in Gordon Brown, who spends an inordinate amount of his time proposing yet more ways to embolden nationalism by transferring powers from Westminster to Holyrood. The SNP, if it was smart, would adopt every one of Brown’s suggestions, knowing that Sir Keir Starmer will not want to create a public rift with a Labour elder statesman. Best case scenario: the SNP gets extra powers to undermine the UK. Worst case scenario: it gets to provoke some constitutional conflict inside the Labour party.
Bring back Kate Forbes. Yousaf foolishly tried to humiliate his leadership rival with an offer to be his rural affairs secretary, sending her to the backbenches in protest. Her absence can be felt not just in the quantity of ministerial talent on the front bench but in the lack of a voice for economic growth, enterprise and prosperity.
Yousaf’s government is attempting a rapprochement with business but no one at cabinet level is well-suited to that task. It wouldn’t be an appetising slice of humble pie to swallow but bringing Forbes into the fold would strengthen the government in an area where it is acutely vulnerable.
Pivot to economic growth. With Forbes on board, the government should begin to recalibrate its policy agenda. The emphasis on social justice is important but it needs to be matched by a drive to create wealth and jobs. This balance is how you achieve a wellbeing economy, not by sidelining prosperity but by pursuing it in a way consistent with overarching social goals and parameters. The government has allowed itself to drift too far towards the reactionary utopianism of degrowth, a luxury ideology that seeks to rein in the benefits of capitalism just as they are becoming more democratic in their accessibility. Scotland needs growth, Scotland wants growth and so Scotland’s party has to be for growth.
Prioritise the health service. Health is the First Minister’s weakest point because of his previous ministerial role and because Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has made himself the unofficial spokesman for patients and staff who have suffered the worst of the SNP-run NHS.
Yousaf should choose three priority points where visible improvements will cut through with the public, even as the service lumbers arthritically everywhere else. Three of the most high-profile problem areas are Accident and Emergency waiting times, cancer waiting times and accessing GP appointments. Focus investment there, and be as heterodox and reformist as is required to achieve results, and Yousaf will be less exposed to attacks on his record.
Complete dualling of the A9. Ratting on this promise is one of the most self-defeating acts the Scottish government has undertaken in recent years. It told voters in Inverness-shire that their safety driving one of the most dangerous roads in the country mattered less to the SNP than keeping the Scottish Greens happy. This was doubly unwise given the suspicion of rural voters that this is a government of the central belt, by the central belt, and for the central belt. Completing the A9 upgrade will show that the government is not deaf to the concerns of people who live outside Glasgow and Edinburgh.
Compensate islanders for ferry delays. Another relationship needing a reset is with Scotland’s island communities, who have suffered both in their wallets and their quality of life thanks to the delays and cancellations caused by an out-of-date and unreliable ferry fleet. Since the Scottish government’s failure to procure new generation ferries from the Ferguson Marine deal has only added to these problems, ministers should make a goodwill gesture to islanders. Yousaf has been unwilling to agree compensation so far but relenting would go some way to addressing the grievances of the islanders.
There is no reason the SNP has to hunker down and simply await its fate at the hands of a resurgent Labour party. It can renew itself in government and avoid a brutal reckoning at the ballot box next year. But Humza Yousaf has to act and act now.
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