I’ll stick my neck out: Russia may be heading for an outright defeat

In the West, it’s tempting to believe that revulsion at Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is universal, and that he’s receiving support only from a handful of miscreant countries like Venezuela, Syria and Iran. I wish this were true. I’m in Skopje, the capital of North Macedonia, where there’s much sympathy for Putin, which has only increased since the invasion began. This is despite the government in North Macedonia being pro-western and pretty decent when compared with its predecessors and many of its neighbours.

The reasons for North Macedonia’s Putin sympathy are complex. The country’s largest ethnic group are Slavs, whose language is close to Bulgarian. They don’t like how Nato bombed Serbia in the late 1990s, and they get much of their news from Serbian media, which can be very pro-Russian. Another important reason is the West. Like other Balkan nations, North Macedonia has long sought to align itself with the EU, but has been consistently stymied. The country, which was the last to join Nato, applied for EU membership 17 years ago, and changed its name from Macedonia to North Macedonia to appease Greek opposition (who claimed prior rights to the name ‘Macedonia’). Then there was opposition from Emmanuel Macron, who didn’t want more immigration into France. Now Bulgaria is blocking membership as it believes North Macedonia should be part of Bulgaria. This rejection has undermined pro-European politicians in North Macedonia, including President Stevo Pendarovski, and led to a decline in support for alignment with the West. The US, for its part, has forgotten about the Balkans. Hence the increasing sympathy for Putin.

If Putin subdues Ukraine, there will be bad consequences throughout the Balkans.