Some early thoughts on the American election results:
1) What Bradley effect? Obama won white men 57-41– that’s five points higher than Bush managed in 04. So much for the idea that this election would expose America’s racist underbelly. I wonder if those who have been banging on about it for the last few weeks will now ask if Obama’s “improbable journey” would have been possible in any European democracy?
2) No conservative wipeout. McCain looks like ending up on 47% of the national vote – a huge figure, given this has perhaps been the Republicans’ worst year for a generation. So we have almost half of America voting conservative – yet there will be a Obama-Biden White House and a Reid-Pelosi Congress. Such an imbalance should create the conditions for a conservative fightback in the 2010 midterm elections.
3) McCain outpolls GOP. The McCain-Palin ticket looks like it significantly outperformed the Republican brand in general if you look at the House and Senate figures. Democrats are heading to win 25 seats in the House – so Pelosi will have the best majority for 75 years.
4) Hillary as official opposition? I still haven’t heard from her. Any money she’s now positioning herself as the main leftist opposition to Obama should he move too close to the centre.
5) Young voters. Amongst the under-30s, Obama had two thirds of the votes according to Frank Luntz. Also striking was how they followed the campaign. For the first time in the election, the internet surpassed television as a source of information.
6) Handover. Four years ago, Bush signed a law granting advanced security clearance to the key advisers of both campaigns. This means as of today, Obama’s team will be given classified briefings immediately. There is much to be said for the US system of waiting a few weeks before hitting government.
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