Is Kemi Badenoch running scared? It’s not an accusation often levelled at the shadow housing secretary, who is usually criticised for being too keen on a scrap. Badenoch’s campaign team say she wants to tell the Conservatives ‘hard truths’, and that she is the opponent Keir Starmer would most dread across the despatch box. But for all her pugnaciousness, Badenoch isn’t the candidate pressing for a face-off with her opponent.
Badenoch has no need to debate, and it makes tactical sense for her to avoid it
Yesterday Robert Jenrick asked the BBC to host a TV debate between him and Badenoch. He is apparently happy to debate his rival ‘any time, anywhere’, but ‘sources close to’ Badenoch say she is keener to spend her time meeting members. Badenoch’s Twitter feed shows her shaking hands with Conservative MPs and sitting down with activists. On Saturday she was in Oxfordshire meteing concillors and the Thames Valley police and crime commissioner.
Badenoch’s campaign says she ‘has been on the road listening’ – a familiar tactic of Tory leadership hopefuls. Promising a ‘listening leadership’ allows candidates to show they will not make the mistakes of their predecessors. In 1975, Margaret Thatcher reached out to backbenchers whose egos had been bruised by Edward Heath. More recently, Boris Johnson became the avatar of MPs and activists who felt shut out of the Brexit process by Theresa May. Badenoch’s appeals to disgruntled members have helped put her top of our ConservativeHome poll.
Badenoch’s tactics have so far made her the frontrunner, and she now has more to lose from a debate with Jenrick. Members only have a couple of weeks to vote. If she were to stumble, it would redound to Jenrick’s benefit.
Nevertheless, Badenoch’s failure to take up Jenrick’s offer of a debate seems a missed opportunity. It’s true that she is taking part in a GB News event on Thursday with Jenrick. But the pair will take questions from an audience one at a time, so will not directly face off against each other.
If Badenoch were to become leader of the opposition, she’d have to prepare for tough media rounds in the months and years ahead. She left this weekend’s Sunday shows to Jenrick. It might have been a tactical oversight or a logistical necessity, but it’s not good practice. If Badenoch really wants to get the Tories back into government, she wouldn’t be able to duck out of Prime Minister’s Questions.
Jenrick, meanwhile, has a lean and hungry look. His supporters would argue he has support across the party, and has a clearer policy prospectus than Badenoch. His plan to quit the ECHR (European Convention on Human Rights) to cut immigration, for instance, goes down better than her complaints about systematic dysfunction in Whitehall.
Badenoch has no need to debate, and it makes tactical sense for her to avoid it. The keener Jenrick seems, the more she might want to duck out. But that is letting herself down. Tory members want a leader who can take the fight to Labour, isn’t afraid to be make Conservative arguments, and has the iron in them to deliver. They believe they have that in Badenoch. She should relish a chance to show they are right.
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