Israel vs Iran: will the conflict escalate further?

Jerusalem

It’s a sunny day in Jerusalem where Israelis are waking up to fresh conflict on the country’s border with Syria. I’m in town as part of a Bicom delegation and the picturesque scenes give little indication of the events of the night before which saw 20 rockets fired by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards at Golan Heights overnight. In response, Israel upped the ante and sent more rockets back – targeting Iranian weapons depots, logistics sites and intelligence centres. This marks a serious ratcheting up of tensions between Israel and Iran following increasing unease about Iranian presence in Syria and Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal on Tuesday. It is the first time Iranian forces have fired directly on Israeli troops. A retaliation attack had been expected for some time after Israel’s military attacked 12 Syrian and Iranian targets inside Syria in February. An Israeli foreign ministry spokesman says they are victims of Iranian aggression – though the size of their reply, reported as being somewhere around 60 rockets – suggests Iran is not alone in aggressive behaviour. The questions now being asked in Israeli government and security circles: where will this lead? Will the Iranians settle with this or will they go for more? The Israeli side is adamant that they don’t want war – and they maintain that this is an unlikely outcome. There is a hope that the strikes over night will draw a line in the sand. Speaking this morning, Dore Gold – President of the Jerusalem centre for public affairs – suggested that the Iranians may be deterred from escalating the situation further. If the Iranians do wish to continue strikes they would risk isolating the European countries who have up until now supported the country and the Iran nuclear deal despite the US pulling out. It’s also not clear that Russia would support a further escalation. A spokesman for the Foreign Ministry tells us that they are in close contact with No 10 and the Foreign Office with the UK government holding ‘a clear understanding of the Israeli perspective’ – if not full agreement. For now though, it’s business as usual for Israelis – Golan Heights remains open and in Jerusalem, diplomats continue to busy themselves preparing for the arrival of Javanka (Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump) for the opening next week of the US embassy in the Holy City.