Boris Johnson is the receiver of good news and bad news this evening. He is on course to win Commons approval for his new tier system when it’s put to a vote on Tuesday. However, it will likely be down to support from Labour. While a Tory revolt is brewing, Sir Keir Starmer has announced that his party will abstain in the vote — meaning even a sizeable rebellion on the Tory benches won’t be enough to stop it passing.
Explaining his decision, Starmer said his party would not vote against the restrictions on the grounds that Labour will ‘always act in the national interest’. His reason for not voting for the restrictions? The lack of a ‘credible health and economic plan in place’. Labour officials are braced for a small rebellion tomorrow evening with some Labour MPs expected to defy the whip and vote against.
But it’s the Tory rebellion that will be giving Boris Johnson cause for concern. The decision by Labour to abstain means the number of Tory rebels will be clear for all to see. Even though his plan looks set to pass, no Conservative prime minister wants to have to rely on opposition votes to get their agenda through. Yet this is currently the scenario ministers are braced for. The hope in government had been that concessions on timings for future votes and the publication of health, social and economic impact analyses of the tier system would be enough to get some potential rebels back on side.
As James reports, those assessments — if anything — appear to be having the opposite effect. Mark Harper, chairman of the Covid Recovery Group of Tory MPs, has said the analysis — which says it is ‘not possible to know with any degree of confidence’ what economic impact of relaxing restrictions would be — suggests ‘the wheels are coming off the government’s arguments’. Tory MPs planning to vote against the new tier system believe the rebellion could see over 50 Tory MPs go against the government.
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