There have been few debates in recent political history as disastrous as the one that unfolded in May when Marine Le Pen faced Emmanuel Macron on live TV. This was the big chance for the leader of the National Front to demonstrate to her people she was presidential material four days before the second round of voting.
Boy, did Le Pen blow it. Snarly and sarky, she was the spitting image of her odious father. All Macron had to do was sit tight, correcting her when she got her facts wrong, and voilà, he won the second round by a landslide.
Since then Le Pen has rarely been seen and in her absence the far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has positioned himself as the symbol of resistance to all things Macron.
Le Pen finally re-emerged on Thursday evening, appearing on television to tell France that ‘we’re committed to a profound reform of the National Front’. Everything will be up for discussion, she said, a further hint that the party’s name could be changed in an attempt to erase once and for all the taint of Jean-Marie Le Pen. Then on Saturday she addressed 500 supporters under the rain at Brachay, promising them a return to the party’s ‘fundamentals’, while lashing out at Macron and Laurent Wauquiez, of whom more anon.
It was Old School Le Pen, before she lost her way with her unrealistic dream of ‘Frexit’, of which she no longer talks. But it’s too late. Her credibility is shot as shown in two recent polls. One, published in a Sunday newspaper, revealed that 73 percent of people believe she just isn’t cut out to be president, while a survey in Friday’s Le Figaro announced that 67 percent of respondents judged what happened during the debate to be the principal reason for the sharp decline of the National Front, a slump that saw the party win only eight seats in June’s parliamentary elections, instead of the projected forty.
The second reason cited was the internal strife that has riven the party in the last year or so, in particular the ideological divisions between the conservative Marion Maréchal-Le Pen and the left-leaning Florian Philippot, which resulted in the former quitting politics for business in May.
The poll is a damning indictment of Le Pen’s leadership, demonstrating she has neither the personal qualities nor the political shrewdness to warrant her position at the head of the party. But who is the alternative? Philipott, the man the rank and file loathe.
Only 36 percent of people polled wish to see him as leader, compared to the 46 percent who want Le Pen to continue. The majority regard her as a ‘handicap’, a woman who, if she had any honour, would have stepped down. But in the best traditions of French politics Le Pen clings to power, incapable of acknowledging that her moment has passed.
Who would make the best leader of the National Front? 58 percent believe Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, and significantly the 27-year niece of Le Pen scored particularly well among respondents who identified themselves as centre-right Républicains, polling 76 percent compared to her aunt’s 44 percent.
This is significant because in one of her last interviews before stepping down, Maréchal-Le Pen praised the political vision of Laurent Wauquiez, who is expected to be elected the new leader of the Républicains in December. What connects the right and the centre-right isn’t the economy, she said, in what was also a swipe at her aunt’s election strategy, ‘it’s conservatism’.
Wauquiez, who has robust views on Islam, immigration and national identity, has stated publicly that he has ‘no intention of working with Maréchal-Le Pen’; given her popularity within his party, he might want to think again, or else run the risk she’ll return as leader to the National Front and become the darling of the right.
More than a third of Républicains voters in the survey said they would approve of an alliance between the National Front and the Républicains, an increase of eight per cent since 2015, while 48 percent of National Front sympathisers welcomed the prospect of a merger.
That seems a distant prospect as long as Marine Le Pen remains, but with her reputations in shreds Wauquiez has the opportunity to do to the National Front what Macron has done to his own party this year, and lure the disillusioned.
Wauquiez is a dynamic 42-year-old and the only person from the centre-right capable of giving Macron a run for his money. His priority will be to re-establish the credibility of his party, no easy task after its implosion under the leadership of François Fillon. Out of touch and aloof is how the Républicains are seen by many with another poll in the centre-right Le Figaro on Friday revealing that 78 percent of people have no interest in the leadership contest.
That will have alarmed Wauquiez, confirming that the party is short on star quality and increasingly seen as irrelevant. How to make it relevant once more? Not by trying to out-Macron Macron. It would be a serious blunder if Wauquiez listens to the moderates within his party and moves more to the centre. If he’s to have any chance of winning the 2022 election he should step right, promoting a blend of social conservatism and economic liberalism, which was the presidential election strategy Maréchal-Le Pen advocated for the National Front.
She was overruled by her aunt, so it would be sweet revenge for her if she accepts an invitation from Wauquiez to join him and in doing so deals a mortal blow to the National Front.
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