The 12 days since David Miliband’s Guardian op-ed has seen Miliband both achieve a tactical success and a tactical failure. Indeed, the real gainers from this initial phase have been the other possible challengers.
Miliband’s achievement is that he is the boy who lived. He is the first Labour MP since Blair in 1994 to emerge as a serious threat to Brown’s leadership ambitions and survive. The fact that Miliband was not dispatched instantly means that his credibility has risen. His continuing presence in the government even after his performance on the Jeremy Vine show is a daily reminder of Brown’s weakness.
But if Brown is forced out, Miliband will be the candidate tarred with disloyalty and the one that the Brownites will do anything to stop. The Miliband camp has long wanted to avoid
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