Donald Trump is back. Later today, Trump will once again take the oath of office and be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. A host of UK politicians are in Washington D. C. to watch the spectacle including Trump’s friend Nigel Farage, former prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel and former home secretary Suella Braverman along with her husband Rael (now a Reform supporter). However, one politician who will be missing from the festivities is David Lammy – the Foreign Secretary is not making the trip.
A small group of ministers have been meeting to discuss what Trump means for the government’s plans
Instead, Lammy is in the Middle East – where he has embarked on a morning broadcast round whereby he praised Trump on the Today programme (a far cry from his 2018 approach of branding Trump a ‘neo-Nazi sympathizing sociopath’). Keir Starmer will also not be in attendance with Downing Street pointing out it is convention for leaders to stay away (though notably Trump allies Javier Milei and Giorgia Meloni will be attending). Another notable absence is Peter Mandelson, the new UK ambassador to the US, who has faced briefings over the weekend that Trump could block his ambassadorship (however, Labour and Republican sources play down the likelihood of this happening).
The official line from the government is that Starmer is looking forward to working with Trump and talks of friction are overblown. In a statement on Sunday night, Starmer praised ‘President Trump’s longstanding affection and historical ties to the United Kingdom’ adding that the ‘depth of friendship will continue’. Both Lammy and Starmer like to talk about the dinner they shared with Trump last year and the fact the president-elect offered Lammy extra chicken (taken as a true sign of friendship).
However, figures in Reform and Team Trump are less positive about the state of relations. They point out it was after that dinner that Labour staffers went out to volunteer to campaign for Kamala Harris in the election. Then there’s the Chagos Islands deal – senior Republicans have expressed heavy scepticism over the deal which cedes sovereignty to Mauritius. In a sign of an awareness not to start on bad terms with Trump, the UK government paused plans to push it through ahead of the inauguration. Add to this Trump’s close friend Elon Musk who has a personal vendetta against Starmer and there may be good reason Downing Street aides do not want to get drawn into when Starmer might be invited for a visit to meet Trump. Then there are the Labour politicians who feel Starmer and his ministers should not kiss the ring. Ministers have already distanced themselves from the London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s warning of ‘resurgent fascism’.
It follows that there are nerves in Whitehall about what the return of Trump means for the government’s plans. A small group of ministers – Starmer, Lammy, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds – have been meeting to discuss potential scenarios. Top of the list of issues are potential tariffs against the UK. However, ministers hope that the UK will not be the top of the list here and instead Trump is more likely to focus on the EU and China initially. An independent forecast suggests that if implemented tariffs could cause Britain’s GDp to fall by nearly 0.9 per cent. There are hopes for some kind of trade deal with the US. However, there is scepticism in Westminster over whether Starmer will be willing to make the required concessions – potentially on agriculture – to meet any US demands. The decision by the UK government to seek closer ties with the EU is likely to complicate any trade negotiation.
Then there is Ukraine and how Trump tries to bring an end to the conflict. A partition could be hard to sell domestically. If Trump forces Nato countries to raise defence spending to 3 per cent, it will impact Reeves’s spending plans. ‘I fear we’re going to be talking about Trump and not much else for the next for years,’ says one Labour MP.
The last time Trump was president, the Conservatives were in power. Both Theresa May and Boris Johnson found handling the US president a challenge. May had to endure Trump critiquing her Brexit approach and her aides at the time recall that the private phone calls were even tougher. Johnson fared better but even his team say it was difficult as the president proved very unpredictable. Given the extra baggage this time around, Keir Starmer has an even trickier path to navigate.
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