The Labour party has a problem with Muslims. A new poll suggests that British Muslim voters, who have traditionally supported Labour in huge numbers, are deserting the party over its handling of the Israel-Gaza war.
Backing for Labour from the Muslim community has fallen massively since the 2019 general election from 86 per cent to 60 per cent, according to a poll conducted by Survation. It was commissioned by the Labour Muslim Network (LMN), which promotes British Muslim engagement with the party.
Some within Labour’s ranks have now accused the party of being ‘outflanked’ by the Tories on Gaza
This isn’t the only finding that will set alarm bells ringing: 38 per cent of Muslims said their views of Labour had become more unfavourable in recent months, while a whopping 85 per cent said policy on Israel-Palestine would be important in deciding how they cast their vote at the upcoming general election. A spokesman for LMN warned that the findings pointed to a ‘crisis point’ for Labour’s relationship with Muslim voters and that the party that it risked losing a ‘generation’ of potential new voters.
Trouble has been brewing ever since the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel. The Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer initially appeared to defend Israel’s decision to shut off water and power to Gaza. That stance that did not go down too well with some Labour MPs and their Muslim constituents. He eventually rowed back on his remarks but by then the damage had been done.
There was further dissension in the Labour ranks when Starmer’s MPs were instructed not to vote for a ceasefire during a Commons debate in November. This led to the resignation of several shadow cabinet members, along with a number of local councillors across the country. The seething resentment at the leadership’s position was not helped by a senior Labour source describing the resignations as the party ‘shaking off the fleas’.
Most difficult of all for Starmer has been his continuing refusal to back calls for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, instead supporting the government’s call for steps towards a ‘sustainable ceasefire’. Some within Labour’s ranks have now accused the party of being ‘outflanked’ by the Tories on Gaza. These worries were exacerbated when Foreign Secretary David Cameron suggested last week that the government was considering recognising a Palestinian state once the war was finished. Starmer’s position is that a future Labour government would not recognise a state of Palestine pre-emptively or unilaterally.
This latest poll will trouble MPs preparing to fight the upcoming election. Labour’s MP Khalid Mahmood, who represents Birmingham Perry Barr, told reporters in November that he had had more than 3,000 emails from constituents demanding a ceasefire – the largest postbox he has ever received on a single issue. One of the biggest concerns for MPs such as Mahmood is the possibility of facing independent candidates fighting on the single issue of Gaza at the next general election.
MPs who did not vote for a ceasefire would be particularly vulnerable, and no Labour MP in a constituency with a large number of Muslim voters will feel entirely safe at the next election. It is not just seats in the West Midlands that are at stake: the same worries will exist in Labour-held constituencies in the north-west, from Manchester to Preston and Blackburn.
One other interesting snippet in this latest poll is the drop in personal support for the Labour leader. Sir Keir Starmer’s personal rating has fallen and now stands at minus 11 per cent among Muslim voters. The problem for Starmer is that another high profile policy U-turn – such as calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza or recognition of a Palestinian state – will only add to the general impression that the Labour leadership will say or do anything to curry favour. That carries its own much greater political price for its relationship with the wider electorate. Labour is stuck between a rock and a hard place. It may just have to accept losing Muslim votes over its Middle East stance.
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