He’s back. After months of teasing and indecision, Nigel Farage launched himself fully into the fray of yet another election campaign on Monday, standing as the Reform UK candidate in UKIP friendly Clacton, and taking over from Richard Tice as leader of the party. The electrifying effect of this announcement might seem a bit odd, given that Farage has hardly been absent from screens and airwaves in recent months. But this decision to fully take the plunge matters, for three reasons.
Firstly, it kills the squeeze on the Reform vote. The clear Tory strategy in the first fortnight has been to love bomb Reform UK supporters with socially conservative policy offers in an effort to bring these voters back into the Tory fold. Rishi Sunak was always going to struggle to overcome such voters’ dislike and distrust of a government they believe has let them down repeatedly. But now the squeeze game is over. The Reform-curious love Nigel Farage, the face of UKIP and Brexit, and it is Farage they will follow now.
You can’t out-Nigel Nigel with populist voters
Farage’s reappearance doesn’t just kill off Tory appeals to Reform UK voters, it also disrupts their broader messaging. The pint-loving populist offers a splash of colour in an otherwise grey campaign, and now he’s back in the fray, producers and editors will seek out his reaction to every development. The result will be a constant background hum of populist criticism undermining Tory promises and reinforcing voters’ doubts.
The resulting disruption brings us to the third Farage problem: his return deepens the central dilemma of the Tory campaign. Sunak can’t win unless he holds on to both Nigel-curious anti-immigration populists and moderate swing voters who want a serious offer on the cost of living and public services. Team Sunak may be tempted to tack right yet again in an effort to shut off the Farage noise machine, but doing so risks failure on both fronts. You can’t out-Nigel Nigel with populist voters, who will prefer the original to the pale tribute. Meanwhile, more red meat on the right risks further putting off the moderate voters considering Labour, who don’t like Farage and won’t want to vote for a Tory Farage tribute act.
Farage’s return isn’t entirely risk free for Labour either – the clown prince of politics could hijack Labour’s ‘change’ message by offering a more radical alternative, and grab the attention of voters angry with the government but unenthused by the dull Starmer alternative.
Perhaps a sign of trouble to come, but in this campaign Labour can take comfort from the fundamentals – the Tories are much more exposed to the Farage challenge as they are more reliant on voters who share the Nigel worldview. Crucially, Farage’s decision to stand down candidates in Tory seats last time magnifies the harm he does in the same seats this time. Farage has now made himself a key player in this election and its aftermath – which was no doubt his plan all along.
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