No one has much certainty about what sort of government we will end up with after this election. Even when they are being totally honest in private, neither of the two main parties will really say they’re confident they can get a majority. The Tories hope they have a good chance of getting a decent working majority, but there’s no swaggering confidence that there was in 2017, when campaign staff were telling anyone who would half listen that they were going to ‘win big’.
Aside from the volatile political climate and the likelihood of voters being far less loyal than they have been previously, what makes this election even less certain is that the traditional methods of measuring how things are going have turned out to be rather flawed.
It’s not just that the polls haven’t really helped anyone work out what might happen, but also that even the traditional shoe leather methods considered sacred by the parties and journalists haven’t given us the right picture of where voters are going.
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